Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
525 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO CONGEAL INTO A NICE SQUALL LINE ACROSS
CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS, AS THE COLD FRONT SLICES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORM MODE WITH VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. STILL COULD HAVE A COUPLE STORMS IN S-CNTRL KS BRIEFLY
DEVELOP MESOCYCLONES FOR ANOTHER HR OR TWO GIVEN LOW LVL HELICITIES,
HOWEVER SBCAPES SHOULD BE FALLING BLO 1000 AS THE SUN SETS,
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. SO BY MID EVENING, WE SHOULD BE MAINLY
DEALING WITH A SQUALL LINE PRODUCING MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WINDS AT
BEST AS IT MOVES THRU S-CNTRL/SERN KS.

JMC

-------------------------------------------------------------
232 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT, AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

TONIGHT:
A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE
FORMING A TRIPLE PT JUST W/SW OF S-CNTRL KS. SBCAPES AROUND 1500
COMBINED WITH HIGH LOW LVL HELICITIES SUGGEST A TORNADIC POTENTIAL.
MAIN THREAT AREA ALONG/W OF A SALINA TO WICHITA TO WELLINGTON LINE.
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR TYPE MCS OVER S-CNTRL
KS/FLINT HILLS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS BECOME
MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THE SQUALL LINE FEATURE WL THEN PROGESS
ACROSS SERN KS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EXISTS
PARTICULARLY OVER SERN KS, BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR AFFECT
RIVERS, SO NOT PLANNING A FLOOD WATCH ATTM.

SUNDAY:
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SERN KS IN THE EARLY MORNING HRS, ENDING THE
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. WITH THE DEEP AND STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT STILL
MOVG EWD ACROSS KS DURG DAY, LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL STEEPEN WITH
PARTIAL SUN, CREATING MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SO WL RETAIN SLT CHC OF
SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HRS. HIGHS IN LOW-MID 60S LOOK ON
TARGET. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SUN NGT. WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS AND DRIER
AIR IN PLACE, PATCHY FROST PSBL IN CNTRL KS WITH LOWS IN MID 30S.

MON-FRI:
FCST AREA WL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW TO OUR
EAST MON-WED. DID TRIM TEMPS DOWN MNLY IN OUR NERN COUNTIES TUES-WED
AS THEY WL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE COOLER AIR. ACCORDING TO NCEP,
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS WEEK. PRETTY HIGH UNCERTAINTY
DEVELOPS IN THE PATTERN BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE GFS TRYING TO
ADVANCE THE NEXT UPR LOW ACROSS THE SWRN STATES, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS IT OFF THE BAJA COAST. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN, PREFER NOT TO MAKE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE THURS-SAT PERIOD, KEEPING FCST DRY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA         45  63  39  61 /  80  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      44  63  38  61 /  70  20  10  10
NEWTON          44  63  39  60 /  70  20  10  10
ELDORADO        46  64  39  60 /  80  20  10  10
STROTHER FIELD  46  64  40  62 /  80  20  10  10
RUSSELL         39  61  35  60 /  30  20   5  10
GREAT BEND      41  61  36  61 /  30  20   5  10
SALINA          42  62  37  59 /  70  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       43  63  38  60 /  70  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  64  42  61 /  90  30  10  10
CHANUTE         50  64  41  60 /  90  20  10  10
IOLA            49  64  41  59 /  90  20  10  10
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

9/CARUSO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
122 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-281200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
122 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 135/I-35 CORRIDOR BY 5 PM AND AREAS
TO THE EAST AFTERWARDS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE SHOWING THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE BECOMING SUPERCELLULAR. AS A RESULT, SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME TORNADIC AS THEY MOVE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ACROSS AREAS
WEST OF A MCPHERSON, TO WICHITA, TO WELLINGTON LINE. ALTHOUGH, THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSES EAST THIS EVENING, HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35.  WIDESPREAD OR RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE RAPID
MOVEMENT OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
REGIONWIDE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE THE RESULT OF COLD AIR
AND LOW PRESSURE ALOFT.  WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE, SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED WEST OF A SALINA TO WICHITA TO
WELLINGTON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS
LINE THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

HOWERTON/COX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             4 W BARNARD             39.19N 98.12W
03/27/2004  0.75 INCH        LINCOLN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
404 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     HAIL             9 SW ELLSWORTH          38.64N 98.35W
03/27/2004  0.88 INCH        ELLSWORTH          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
412 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             1 N ELLINWOOD           38.95N 99.56W
03/27/2004  0.75 INCH        ELLIS              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
421 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             4 WSW WESTFALL          38.90N 98.07W
03/27/2004  0.75 INCH        LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
449 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             6 S BROOKVILLE          38.69N 97.88W
03/27/2004  1.25 INCH        SALINE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRW

KSZ032-033-048-049-280000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
522 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 35 HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAD EXITED MOST OF CENTRAL
KANSAS. AS A RESULT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 35 HAS
EXPIRED.

COX