Severe Thunderstorm Warning 270, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FCST CONCERNS...
CNVTV TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THEN COOLDOWN BY WEEKS END...

UNSETTLED WX PTRN WL CONT THRU THE MID-WEEK PD ACRS THE CWA, AS
SPLIT/COUPLED UPR JET SEGMENTS CONT TO PROVIDE AREA OF FAVBORABLE
LIFT ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO WED. MINOR SHRTWV ON NRN EDGE OF
SRN BRANCH JET WAS MOVG TWD SCNTRL KS EARLY THIS MRNG, WITH RENEWED
CNVTV ELEMENTS RUMBLING JUST S OF ICT AREA ALSO AIDED BY MODEST
ELEVATED INSTBY AND LO LVL JET. WL CONT TO CARRY SLGT/MODEST CHC
TSRA FOR AREAS MAINLY E OF THE TURNPIKE TODAY, AS UPR LVL FEATURE
CONTS TO TRAVERSE EWD ACRS SERN KS AND INVOF MESO-OUTFLOW BNDRYS.
WARM/HUMID AIRMASS ACRS THE CWA SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEAMY AFTN MAXS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AOA 100 IN MOST AREAS.

ADTNL SHRTWV ENERGY FM WRN UPR TROF AND SUBTRPCL/SRN BRANCH WL
AFFECT THE AREA LATE TNGT/WED, AND SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST SLGT
CHCS FOR PCPN, MAINLY ACRS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. SOME CONCERNS
THAT HIGHER LVL MSTR PLUME/CI FM SRN BRANCH COULD BCM DETRIMENTAL
IMPACT TO MAXS ON WED, MORE SO ACRS THE SRN CWA, HOWEVER FCST
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING MAXS STATUS QUO, GENLY LOW TO MID 90S
ON WED.

THU APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, AS STGR UPR JET
CARVES OUT TROF ACRS NV AND THE INTERMTN WEST. SFC CDFNT WL BEGIN
TO SETTLE SWD ACRS THE PLAINS, RMNG N ACRS NEB, WITH INCRSD
BAROCLINICITY ALG FNT. PROGD H8 TEMPS/LO LVL THKNS VALUES SUPPORT
MAXS GENLY IN THE 95 TO 100F RANGE, WARMEST ACRS CNTRL KS.

CHCS FOR PCPN/CNVTN WL INCRS BY FRI NGT, AS WRN UPR TROF APCHS AND
FNT SAGS SWD ACRS THE CWA. WL CONT MDT CHC POPS WITH SGFNT COOLING
TREND INTO SAT WITH CLOUDS AND SCT PCPN CONTG IN WAKE OF SFC FROPA.

DARMOFAL

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  72  96  71 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      95  71  96  70 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          94  71  95  70 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        94  72  95  71 /  15  10  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  72  96  71 /  15  10  20  10
RUSSELL         93  69  94  68 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      94  69  95  68 /  20  20  20  10
SALINA          95  71  96  70 /  20  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  71  96  70 /  10  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  74  93  73 /  30  10  20  20
CHANUTE         92  73  92  72 /  30  10  20  20
IOLA            92  73  92  72 /  30  20  20  20
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

13/DARMOFAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1100 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1100 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD SOUTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TARGET AREAS ALONG, AND NORTHEAST, OF A LINE
FROM COTTONWOOD FALLS, TO FREDONIA, TO ALTAMONT. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED, VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY AFTER 1 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERES A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACHIEVE SEVERITY WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEING TARGETED
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF INTERMISSION THURSDAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEVERE, SO BE LISTENING FOR SUBSEQUENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, ESPECIALLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

CJ/JMC/COX/ES