Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TDY-TNGHT
TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES WERE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. ONE WAVE WAS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE OTHER ONE
WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN 305-315K LAYER
HAS RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER S CENTRL KS AND WILL RAISE
POPS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN KS FOR THIS MORNING...BUT THINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES NE. A ISOLATED STRONG
STORM COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF S CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ACROSS WESTERN
KS LATER TDY WITH A DRY LINE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE IN WESTERN OR
POSSIBLY CENTRAL KS. WHERE THIS DRY LINE SETS UP WILL BE THE FAVORED
AREA FOR SFC BASED STORMS TO FIRE. ON A SIDE NOTE LATEST MESOETA IS
TRYING TO SET UP A POSSIBLE BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IN
EASTERN KS DURING AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD DEBRIS AND
THIS BOUNDARY WASHING OUT SHOULD KEEP CHANCES LIMITED IN THAT
AREA...HOWEVER DAYSHIFTER WILL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.
SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE INITIATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN KS.

TUES-WED
SHOULD BE A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY AGAIN ON TUES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY BUT THAT COULD CHANGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CENTER ITSELF OVER N CENTRAL KS WITH ASSOCIATED DRY LINE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS
SCENARIO SURE LOOKS MORE LIKE A JUNE WX PATTERN COMPARED TO AUGUST.
THE CAP WILL BE PRETTY STRONG BUT STILL COULD SOME STORMS GO ALONG
THE DRY LINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING DESTABILIZING THINGS. MESOETA
TRIES TO DEVELOP AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION
AND PUSHES THIS BOUNDARY WEST ACROSS EASTERN KS. IN ORDER FOR THIS
SCENARIO TO OCCUR WE WOULD NEED TO SEE A BIG MCS DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN KS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THUS MAKING THAT AREA A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. TOO MANY MESOSCALE FEATURES FOR
MODELS TO PIN DOWN BUT STILL WORTH SMALL CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
CWA. SHEAR LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS IF
THEY CAN GO. MEANWHILE NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO WED WITH ANOTHER
WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED.

EXTENDED: THUR-SUN
VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FCST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH COLD FRONT ARRIVING SOMETIME ON FRIDAY.

TIMING OF COLD FRONT STILL REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS LATEST ECM
SOLUTION NOW HAS THE FRONT OVER EASTERN KS BY 12Z FRI...HOWEVER
OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FROM GFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL
SUGGEST THAT UPPER TROUGH WOULD HANG BACK FURTHER W THAN 12Z ECM
POSITIONING. THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL DIVING INTO BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THUS WILL NOT ALTER OUR FORECASTED FRONTAL POSITIONING/TIMING.
COOLER AIR LOOKS TO FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  71  93  72 /  60  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      90  70  94  71 /  60  20  20  20
NEWTON          88  70  94  71 /  60  20  20  20
ELDORADO        86  70  93  72 /  50  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  72  94  72 /  60  20  20  20
RUSSELL         91  67  94  68 /  30  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      91  68  94  69 /  50  20  20  20
SALINA          92  69  96  70 /  40  20  20  20
MCPHERSON       90  69  95  70 /  60  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     83  71  89  73 /  40  30  20  20
CHANUTE         83  70  89  72 /  40  30  20  20
IOLA            83  70  89  71 /  40  30  20  20
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

15/JAKUB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-231200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD HAIL AND WIND IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO KANSAS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THEM COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES AND OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

CJ/ADK