Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1025 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

WL SEND GRIDS/ZONE FCST UPDATE SOON TO REFLECT AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN CNTRL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MCS OVER WRN/CNTRL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
SWD PROPAGATION TENDENCY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS. 00Z MESOETA
WOULD SUPPORT SWD PROPAGATION POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, TOWARD CNTRL KS,
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TOWARD 40 KTS. ACTIVITY
WOULD LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AM HRS BEFORE DIMINISHING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATE TONIGHT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN
COLD POOL GENERATION POTENTIAL AND LARGE TEMP/DWPT SPREADS BETWEEN
900 AND 700 MBS. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DWPTS OVERNIGHT.

JMC

------------------------------------------------------------------
340 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE SHORT TERM CONVECTION
POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A VERY SUBTLE WAVE NOW MOVING
THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A NICE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM NEAR SLN TO WICHITA. CAP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY WELL ESTABLISHED. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING THE CONVECTION
DYEING OFF IN EASTERN KANSAS. I AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE SUBTLE
WAVE MAY HELP WEAKEN THE CAP. THE ETA DOES TRY TO DEPICT STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT MAY BE
ERODING THE CAP TOO QUICKLY. THE RUC2 SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE CINH
VALUES BETWEEN 100-200J/KG. NEVERTHELESS, WE SHOULD STILL SEE A
COUPLE OF STORMS FIRE ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY.
THESE STORMS SHOULD BE THE PULSE VARIETY, SINCE THE PROFILERS ARE
SHOWING WEAKER SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY. ONCE THESE STORMS GET GOING,
THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS THEY LOSE THEIR DIURNAL DRIVE.

TOMORROW:
ETA IS DEPICTING ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT TRACKING DOWN
THROUGH NEBRASKA, POSSIBLY DUE TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THAT
REGION THIS EVENING. ETA DOES SHOW A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING THIS
AREA SO I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION IN THIS
AREA. THEREFORE, WE ARE GOING TO KEEP POPS GOING. THE REST OF THE
DAY WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT CAP. TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE IF WE HAVE
MORNING CONVECTION, BUT WE WILL NOT FIDDLE WITH TEMPERATURES TOO
MUCH.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND TAKE THE
WESTERLIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, I AM STILL A BIT CONCERNED
ABOUT HOW CONSISTENT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT MAY TRY TO WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE ROCKIES WHICH
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO
KANSAS WHERE THE PATTERN WILL BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. WE ADDED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  92  72  93 /  20  20   5   5
HUTCHINSON      72  93  71  93 /  20  20   5  10
NEWTON          72  92  71  93 /  20  20   5  10
ELDORADO        72  92  72  92 /  20  20   5  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  92  72  92 /  20  20   5   5
RUSSELL         71  95  70  94 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      71  95  70  94 /  20  20   5  10
SALINA          73  93  70  94 /  20  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       72  93  71  93 /  20  20   5  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  90  72  90 /  20  20   5   5
CHANUTE         72  90  72  90 /  20  20   5   5
IOLA            72  90  72  90 /  20  20   5  10
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

18/COX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1030 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-091200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1030 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 2 AM. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS,
HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
AROUND MID WEEK WHICH WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT THESE
STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL
KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON/COX/JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
206 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 AM     TSTM WND GST     LURAY                   39.12N 98.69W
07/09/2004  58 MPH           RUSSELL            KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEASURED WIND GUST VIA KSN WEATHERLAB SITE.

&&

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
215 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     TSTM WND GST     10 N LINCOLN            39.19N 98.15W
07/09/2004  60 MPH           LINCOLN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LFW