Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
343 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SUPERCELL STORM MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND
REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT.

TONIGHT:
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING A RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELL MOVING THROUGH
EXTREME NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS STORM STILL APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED,
BUT IT MAY BECOMING SURFACE BASED. SHEAR PROFILE FROM HILLSBORO
LOOKS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH 0-6KM SHEAR BETWEEN 35
TO 40 KTS. THIS SUPERCELL IS MOVING RATHER SLOW AROUND 20 MPH, BUT
IT MAY SLOW DOWN EVEN MORE IF IT BECOMES ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS SUPERCELL TO HANG ON MUCH PAST SUNSET,
BUT WE WILL SEE. LATER TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE MORE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS
TO FEED INTO THIS REGION AND STRENGTHENS THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ESPECIALLY AROUND 310-315K. THIS SHOULD HELP YIELD TO SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 03Z IN CENTRAL KANSAS. SHEAR PROFILES
STILL LOOK PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH THE
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH. THESE STORMS
COULD GET EVOLVE INTO A LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN IF THEY TAP
THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB. IF THEY DO, THE STORMS
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE COLD POOL DOMINATED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ETA SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ETA IS THE
OUTLIER AND SHOWS ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICIY CENTER
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW, I AM NOT GOING LET THIS MODEL SWAY ME INTO INSERTING POPS
DUE TO LACK OF CONTINUITY WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS. OTHERWISE, WE
SHOULD BECOME WELL CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEAR 90 IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY:
NO REAL BIG CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A NICE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THIS WAVE MAY TRY TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION. WE WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED POPS
IN CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY AND HOT WITH A GOOD CAP IN PLACE.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  95  72  92 /  30  10   5  10
HUTCHINSON      70  95  71  93 /  30  10   5  10
NEWTON          70  94  72  92 /  40  10   5  10
ELDORADO        69  94  72  92 /  40  20   5  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  94  73  92 /  30  20   5  10
RUSSELL         71  97  71  95 /  30  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      71  97  71  95 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          70  94  71  94 /  30  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       70  94  71  93 /  30  10   5  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  90  73  90 /  50  40   5  10
CHANUTE         69  91  73  90 /  50  30   5  10
IOLA            69  90  73  90 /  50  30   5  10
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

18/COX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
409 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-081200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
409 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF TORNADO. THE BULK OF THESE STORMS WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
56. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.
THE BULK OF THESE STORMS WILL STAY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE, BUT A STORM
OR TWO MAY CREEP INTO AREAS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE. THESE STORMS
SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE 9 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME IT IS TO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS.
PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBLY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON/COX