Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...
STATIC WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FOR
THE NEXT WEEK. H5 LOW REMAINS OVER QUEBEC AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD. BETWEEN THESE 2 SYSTEMS. RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CHALLENGE IS TIMING ON
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY:
AT EARLY AFTERNOON A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, AS PER SPCS DAY
ONE OUTLOOK, LOOKS AS THOUGH THE DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY TO OUR WEST BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 2.5 INCHES MOST
AREAS. BELIEVE SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE COULD
SEE A RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACHING THAT THRESHOLD. BECAUSE OF THAT HAVE
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS TILL 9:00 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER MIDNIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN
END ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING COOL AND DRIER AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING:
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY:
NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, LEE TROF ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PROGS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE
BOUNDARY, MOVING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA, THEN BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY AND STAYING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S, WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, DONT THINK THE THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS TO
HOLIDAY OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA         61  81  60  85 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      61  81  60  85 /  70  10  10  10
NEWTON          61  81  60  85 /  70  20  10  10
ELDORADO        61  80  60  84 /  70  20  10  10
STROTHER FIELD  62  81  60  85 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         60  82  61  85 /  30  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  82  61  85 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          61  81  60  85 /  40  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  81  60  85 /  60  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     62  79  59  84 /  70  30   5  10
CHANUTE         62  78  59  83 /  70  20   5  10
IOLA            61  78  59  83 /  70  20   5  10
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH TILL 9:00 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
&&

20/ELDER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
550 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-281200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
550 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. PLEASE STAY TUNED, AS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KLEINSASSER