Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
940 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS
EVENING FM SWRN NEBRASKA THROUGH WRN KS INTO EXTREME NWRN OK. A 45
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WL DEVELOP FM W TX UP THRU OK/KS OVERNIGHT
PROVIDING FUEL TO KEEP THESE STORMS GOING. STILL COULD SEE THESE
CLUSTERS MERGE INTO A LARGER MCS, WITH OVERALL SEWD PROPAGATION.
CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY MCS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT,
AND PSBLY SERN KS DURG THE EARLY AM HRS. MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 EXIST
ALONG/W OF I-135 AND WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL/WIND. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS DURG
THE PAST WEEK, BIGGEST THREAT WL BE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING. CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AND ANY TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS SHOULD BE MINOR
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

JMC

---------------------------------------------------------------
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TNGT:
FOR INITIATION, TWO AREAS BEAR WATCHING: SWRN KS/NW OK AND SW NEB.
BEST MIDLVL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS IN SW NEB, AND BETTER INSTBY IS IN SW
KS.  THIS MORNINGS MCS AFFECTED AREAS A BIT FURTHER S THAN
ANTICIPATED, SO RATHER DISORGANIZED WIND/MSTR FIELDS ACRS THE AREA
ATTM.  APPRS THAT COMBO OF H5 RDG AND LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE WL NOT
BREAK SML CAP SUG BY 18Z DDC AND GOES SOUNDINGS. GETTING A ROGUE
TSTM ON ONE OF NUMEROUS DISCONTINUITIES IS PSBL THIS EVE...WHICH
COULD BE BRIEFLY SEVERE...BUT BEST CHC OF STORMS WL BE LATER TNGT AS
COMBO OF TSTMS FM NEB AND THOSE FM WRN KS CONVERGE ON FCST AREA AFT
MIDNGT.  SOME THREAT FOR BOTH WND/HAIL OVRNGT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT
PROGS/INDICATIONS DOES NOT APPR TO BE WDSPD THREAT UNLESS SOMETHING
GETS SERIOUSLY ORGANIZED.  BIGGEST THREAT SHUD BE FLOODING...WITH
GREATER THAN AN INCH QPF ANTICIPATED OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS, BOTH ROAD/CREEK AND RIVER FLOODING
ARE PROBABLE...SPCLY IN S CNTRL KS.  FLOOD WATCH THRU NOON MON LOOKS
GOOD.

MON:
PCPN WL BE ONGOING AT START OF PD, AND WITH GOOD FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACRS SE KS THRUT THE DAY, ANTICIPATE PCPN WL CONT THERE ALL
DAY.  TEMPS SHUD BE WELL BLO NORMAL WITH CLDS PCPN. SOME CLRG PSBL
IN THE NW WITH SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS. BY MON NGT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
MCS WL DVLP IN SRN NEB AND TRACK ACRS THE FCST AREA ONCE AGN. NOT
CONVINCED THAT SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT SHUNTING SO MUCH MSTR
SO FAR S DURG THE DAY.  STG JET/DIFFLUENCE IN BAROCLINIC ZONE ACR
KS/NEB BDR WOULD SUG AT LEAST SCT PCPN AFT MIDNGT.

TUE:
SHORT RANGE MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHRTWV IN NRN STREAM WITH
GRAZING SHOT DURG THE DAY.  NOT SURE WHY LLVL PROGS DRY THINGS OUT
SO QUICKLY, UNLESS ITS A RESULT OF CONVECTION BOTH ETA/GFS TRY TO
DEVELOP.  WITH SHRTWV NOT THRU AND STILL IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPR
SPD MAX LINGERING PCPN IN H5-H7 FRONTOGENSIS ZONE SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED SML POPS OVER ENTIRE AREA IN THE MORNING AND SRN SXS
TUES AFT.

WED-FRI:
MED RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS, BUT SML DIFFERENCES
IN SHRTWVS IN UPR FLOW CONT TO RESULT IN SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN SFC
PAT.  MOST NOTABLY IS CAN/ECMWF SHOWING 2 DISTINCT VORT LOBES
ROTATING ARND CAN UPR LO.  THE TRAILING SHRTWV INDUCES SFC LO AND
PULLS BAROCLINIC ZONE/SFC FNT INTO NRN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE GFS RUNS
SINCE 18Z SAT HAVE NO LOBES, ALLOWING COLD AIR TO SPILL S AND
REINFORCE EXISTING SFC BNDRY, WITH SGFNT FROPA ACRS FCST AREA ON
THU.  REALITY WL MOST LKLY BE SOMEWHERE INBETWEEN.  DAILY CONVECTION
WL KEEP SOME SORT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE AREA, ALTHO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO CONT TO SHIFT S EACH DAY. SUSPECT A SECONDARY FNT WL DVLP
ACRS THE NRN PLAINS WHICH SHUD HOLD BACK VERY COOL AIR.  HOWEVER
EXTENSIVE CLDS WL LKLY HAVE SAME EFFECT, WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS MOST
DAYS/MOST LOCATIONS.  STILL HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS THAT PCPN WL OCCUR
ON THU, BUT FCST WL REFLECT CONSENSUS FCST.

SAT-SUN:
WL START MODERATING TEMPS TWRDS CLIMO. SOME POTENTIAL THAT PCPN
WOULD LINGER INTO SAT...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY, NOT GOING TO EXTEND
IT AT THIS POINT.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA         66  80  63  82 /  70  40  30  20
HUTCHINSON      66  80  62  82 /  80  40  30  20
NEWTON          66  80  62  82 /  80  40  30  20
ELDORADO        66  80  63  81 /  70  40  30  20
STROTHER FIELD  67  82  64  81 /  70  40  40  30
RUSSELL         63  79  57  83 /  80  30  20  20
GREAT BEND      64  80  59  83 /  80  30  20  20
SALINA          65  79  60  83 /  80  40  20  20
MCPHERSON       65  80  61  83 /  80  40  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  65  80 /  50  70  40  30
CHANUTE         66  80  65  80 /  50  70  30  30
IOLA            65  79  65  80 /  50  70  30  20
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE FCST AREA TIL
NOON MON.
&&

17/HOWERTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
419 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-211200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
419 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ROUGHLY WEST OF I-35
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS EVENING MAY
BRIEFLY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE.  STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THESE COULD BE
SEVERE AS WELL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS POINT, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD.  THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN.  THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE
FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN
EAST OF I-35.  SEE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF AN ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION OR TIMING OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT.  ANY REPORTS OF
FLOODING OVERNIGHT WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

HOWERTON