Tornado Warning 24, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
322 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

.UPDATE...
VERY STRONG CONVECTION OCCURING ACROSS NERN MS...MOVING EWD TOWARDS
NWRN AL. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH SPC...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE HUN CWA EXCEPT FOR CULLMAN COUNTY. AFTN PUBLIC PKG
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY WITH APPROPRIATE WORDING AND HEADLINES...
&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM OBVIOUSLY CENTERS ON POPS OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HRS...AND POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX. AS NOTED PARTICULARLY WELL IN
RECENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOKS...LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS
COMPLICATES THIS ISSUE GREATLY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OFF TO THE
NW. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE HAD GREAT DIFFICULTY HANDLING THIS
PATTERN...AND THIS CONTINUED WITH RELATIVELY POOR HANDLING OF STORMS
THIS MORNING.

PUTTING THAT ASIDE...ETA SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION NEAR
JAN...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND THE STRONGER
OVERALL DYNAMICS. WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N SO THAT
FOCUSING MECHANISM IS ALSO PROBABLY OUT OF RANGE. IF STORMS DO
FIRE TO THE SW...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT THIS WILL STARVE
MOISTURE NEEDED FOR LOCAL DEVELOPMENT. FOR TEMPS...WILL TREND
TOWARDS THE WARMER ETA MOS FOR MINS.

COMPLEX THAT COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
TRANSLATE EWD AND CREATE A WET/STORMY MORNING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
AM HRS DO LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
LLVL JET AND BETTER INSTABILITY...BUT THINK ANY SVR ACTIVITY HERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PRETTY ISOLATED. BOTH THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...SO PLAN TO EMPHASIZE MORNING AS A BETTER
TIME FOR RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES. ALSO PLAN TO TREND AGAIN
TOWARDS THE COOLER ETA MOS FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW...AS WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP HEATING TO A MINIMUM.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS UPR RIDGING
BEGINS TO DEVELOP...AND REMAINDER OF THE PD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. GOING TEMPS AND FCST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS
TIME PD...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE.

EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DAYS 4-7 HINGE LARGELY ON THE STRENGTH OF AN UPR-LVL RIDGE...WHETHER
IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS AND OH
VALLEYS. THERE IS A BIT MORE SPREAD IN THE MED-RANGE MODELS
CENTERING PRIMARILY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND THE EXACT TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THERE IS NOT QUITE ENOUGH SPREAD
TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT PREFERENCE. IN GENERAL...DOESNT LOOK LIKE A
VERY DIFFERENT FCST EITHER...AS A STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT FIZZLE OUT AS HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AGAIN. MODELS NOW DEPICT A SECOND SHORTWAVE
DIGGING IN ACROSS THE NERN CONUS WHICH GIVES NEW LIFE TO THE FRONT
JUST BEYOND DAY 7...BUT WILL MAKE THE FCST DRY FOR MONDAY ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
IN TIMING FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE USUAL TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    65  75  61  78 /  60  60  30  20
SHOALS        66  75  61  79 /  80  70  30  20
CULLMAN       66  76  63  79 /  60  60  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  64  75  62  78 /  60  60  30  20
FT PAYNE      64  75  63  77 /  50  60  30  20
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...TORNADO WATCH ALZ001>ALZ010 THRU 8PM.
TN...TORNADO WATCH TNZ076-TNZ096-TNZ097 THRU 8PM.
&&

BCC/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
435 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-191000-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
435 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(THROUGH TONIGHT)...

SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
ALABAMA-TENNESSEE STATE LINE...INCLUDING ONE DANGEROUS SUPERCELL
THOUGHT TO CONTAIN A TORNADO. THIS HAS PROMPTED A TORNADO WATCH...
WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. IF IT MAINTAINS ITS
STRUCTURE...THE MAIN SUPERCELL WOULD LIKELY TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LIMESTONE AND MADISON COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND
POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
TENNESSEE. STAY TUNED TO FURTHER WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

ASIDE FROM THE MAIN SUPERCELL...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL ALL DAY HAVE STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...AND MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH MAY
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

IF THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOES DEVELOP WEST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT...A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY HELP TRIGGER SOME MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY IN TURN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IS LOW.

BEYOND TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DECREASED RAIN CHANCES
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
REQUESTED AND/OR ONGOING THIS EVENING.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
304 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

ALZ001-002-182030-
COLBERT-LAUDERDALE-
304 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

AT 3 PM...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WAS MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH TOWARD THE WATERLOO AREA OF LAUDERDALE COUNTY...AND
THE RIVERTON AREA OF COLBERT COUNTY. BASED ON THE CURRENT MOVEMENT...
THE STORM WILL REACH THAT AREA AROUND 330 PM.

THIS STORM IS ROTATING... AND IF IT KEEPS ITS CURRENT STRENGTH...
IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH OR
MORE AND LARGE HAIL. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

SCHAUB