Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE LOOKING AT MAIN THREATS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA (FA) BEING SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SVR TSRA RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ALONG LEWP MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST THRU SRN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TOWARD NORTH ALABAMA. SEVERAL REPORTS ALREADY OF HIGH
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IN EVENING ZONES FA-WIDE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BOW
ECHO WIND DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL. EVEN THOUGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE
AROUND 12,000 FEET...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE STORMS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR. SWEAT INDICES HAVE
INCREASED TO OVER 400 ALONG WITH CAPES RANGING FROM 4-5000 J/KG
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO SRN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TRENDING WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE FA BY
AROUND 00Z. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE DECENT DRYING BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH I AM PROGGING TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA BETWEEN
00-06Z. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS INTO THURSDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PULL FRONT TO ON THRU THE FA AND THIS SOLUTION IS
ACCEPTED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON ENDING PRECIP
CHANCES AFTER THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO
BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS THROUGH THE FA
ON SUNDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP PROGGED OVER THE FA ON
SUNDAY...WILL BUMP UP POPS AT LEAST TO 30 PERCENT FA-WIDE. WILL NOT
BE MAKING MUCH CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  90  67  90 /  60  10  10  10
SHOALS        71  90  68  89 /  60  10  10  10
CULLMAN       72  91  66  90 /  60  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  69  88  66  89 /  60  10  10  10
FT PAYNE      71  89  65  89 /  60  10  10  10
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...SVR TSRA WATCH ALL NORTH ALABAMA COUNTIES EXCEPT CULLMAN UNTIL
7 PM. SVR TSRA WATCH FOR CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL 9 PM.
TN...SVR TSRA WATCH FOR LINCOLN/MOORE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM.

&&

TROUTMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-151000-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
100 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(THROUGH TONIGHT)...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING
FROM THE NORTH. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH VERY WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIR...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
BETWEEN 1-2 PM FOR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AFTER 2 PM FOR THE
BORDER COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE...AND 3-5 PM FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. DAMAGING WINDS...WITH GUSTS OVER 60
MPH AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

ALONG WITH THE RISK OF STORMS...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. THESE
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 105 EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...TO 110 NORTHWEST
ALABAMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS
DRY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE REQUESTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RSB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-142200-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
1200 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

...HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...

...A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

A VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT
INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL AFFECT
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY FEEL MORE LIKE
110 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO
110 ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

PERSONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE URGED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO DEAL WITH THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER. WHEN OUTDOORS...
AVOID PROLONGED PERIODS OF EXPOSURE OR STRENUOUS PHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
TAKE FREQUENT REST BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF NON-ALCOHOLIC
BEVERAGES.

ALSO...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL. THE BEST TIME FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
FROM THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON...THROUGH THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...MAKING FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION...STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

RSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             LYNCHBURG               35.28N 86.36W
07/14/2004  1.00 INCH        MOORE              TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN LYNCHBURG

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
331 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAYETTEVILLE            35.15N 86.56W
07/14/2004                   LINCOLN            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREES DOWN IN FAYETTEVILLE

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
336 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HURDLOW                 35.17N 86.34W
07/14/2004                   MOORE              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AT SIMMONS HILL AND INCLINE ROAD

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
343 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W HAZEL GREEN         34.92N 86.62W
07/14/2004                   MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON CHARITY LANE

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
429 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E HUNTSVILLE          34.71N 86.59W
07/14/2004                   MADISON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN.

0414 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SCOTTSBORO              34.65N 86.05W
07/14/2004                   JACKSON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING OVER NUMEROUS ROADS IN SCOTTSBORO.

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N ELKMONT             34.97N 86.98W
07/14/2004                   LIMESTONE          AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN AND WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.

&&

TROUTMAN