Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
257 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
IF IT WERENT SO HOT AND HUMID OUTSIDE...ID REALLY QUESTION WHETHER
THIS IS JULY. AN ACTIVE...YET NOT ACTIVE...WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE AREA...AND IT APPEARS WE ARE HEADED FOR ANOTHER
(GENERALLY) DRY PERIOD IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
DEWPOINTS IN THE BRUTAL UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DROP TO
THE LOWER AND MID 70S OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
SEEING TEMPS MUCH LOWER THAN 73 OR 74 IS GOING TO BE TOUGH.

CONDITIONS WILL BE NO MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AS
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A BIT OF FRONTAL FORCING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...AND WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...A
DIURNAL RANGE OF 20 DEGREES IS ENTIRELY ATTAINABLE...AND SO HAVE
DONE A RE-RAISE OF MAXES INTO THE MID 90S. STILL THINK UPPER 90S ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH NO RAIN TODAY...AND WILL
RANGE APPROPRIATELY. HEAT INDICES WILL BE 105 TO 110 AT THE HOTTEST
PART OF THE DAY.

WE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE TOMORROW...WITH HIGH CAPES...SO ANY STORMS
THAT CAN USE THE FRONTAL FORCING TO OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE AND
DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY EVENING. I SUPPOSE UPPER 80S AND
MID 60S IS COLDER THAN MID 90S AND MID 70S. THE BEST THING WILL BE
THE MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. I CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CULLMAN
COUNTY...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD YESTERDAYS SOLUTION OF BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT (YES...TWO IN
A ROW IN MID JULY...WHAT IS WRONG HERE?) THROUGH ON SATURDAY. SO
HAVE MOVED POPS MOSTLY TO SATURDAY...BUT LEFT THEM IN SUNDAY FOR ONE
MORE RUN. BY NO MEANS WILL THE WEEKEND BE A WASHOUT...AS THERE IS
REALLY NO RETURN FLOW IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. SO WE WILL HAVE A
SITUATION VERY SIMILAR TO TOMORROW...JUST FRONTAL FORCING WRINGING
OUT THE MOISTURE THAT IS AVAILABLE.

THEN WE HAVE ANOTHER DRIER PERIOD FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    74  96  72  90 /  10  20  20  10
SHOALS        74  96  72  89 /  10  20  20  10
CULLMAN       74  96  74  90 /  10  20  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  74  94  70  88 /  10  20  20  10
FT PAYNE      71  96  74  90 /  10  20  20  10
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JE/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-141030-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(THROUGH TONIGHT)...

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...
COUPLED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS...WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO RISE
INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TAP INTO THIS
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT AND HUMID
WITH MOST LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES MAY PUSH INTO THE MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHEN
COUPLED WITH THE PERSISTENT HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS...HEAT INDICES WILL
RISE TO NEAR 105 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ALABAMA.

IN ADDITION...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND ONE INCH HAIL. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE REQUESTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

15/CBD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
116 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 WSW HARTSELLE        34.37N 87.13W
07/12/2004                   LAWRENCE           AL   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER LINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN SPEAKE AND
            DANVILLE.

0343 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARTSELLE               34.44N 86.94W
07/12/2004                   MORGAN             AL   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

CBD