Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE HAS SPARKED SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS. DAMAGE REPORTS ALREADY RECEIVED IN MARSHALL COUNTY. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL BOUNDARY TO NORTH SWINGS DOWN THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
OVER TIME...WE SEE INCREASED DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. AT THIS POINT...I THINK TODAY WAS OUR HIGHEST
COVERAGE DAY FOR PRECIP. THIS LEADS US TO A REAL TASTE OF SUMMER.

WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...AND HIGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...WE SHOULD ROCKET INTO THE 90S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WE APPROACHED 90 TODAY BEFORE THE RAIN...WITH LESS RAIN
TOMORROW 90 SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINED...AND EXPECT TO TOP OUT AS
HIGH AS 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WORSE...WITH DRIER AIR
(INCLUDING SLIGHTLY DRIER AT THE SURFACE) AND HIGHS THAT SHOULD
REACH 95. SOME BACKYARD THERMOMETERS MIGHT READ TRIPLE DIGITS.

THROW IN THE HUMIDITY TO THOSE TEMPS...AND HEAT INDICES COULD REACH
105 DEGREES TOMORROW...AND APPROACH 110 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. WE
JUST BARELY MISS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOALS.
WILL ISSUE AN SPS WITH THIS PACKAGE...AND HEADLINE IN THE ZONES.

PRECIPWISE...WITH THE DRYING AND HIGH TRIGGER TEMPS...COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP...
HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO STRONG STORMS.

EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. YES...A
FRONT IN MID JULY. THE GOOD NEWS IS MOST OF US WILL HAVE SEEN SOME
RAIN EITHER TODAY OR IN THE ENSUING DAYS...MEANING THE GROUND WILL
NOT BE PARCHED. SO UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS TO ACTUALLY
BE COOLER()...ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS...BUT MOST OF US WILL BE 65 TO 70 FOR LOWS.

THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCE INCLUDED IN THE EXTENDED IS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA. HOW MUCH OF A
PUSH IT HAS IS STILL UP FOR GRABS. AT THIS POINT...WILL LEAVE MONDAY
DRY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

THANKS TO MEG/BMX/FFC/MRX FOR LIVELY COLLAB CHAT THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  93  74  98 /  30  30  10  20
SHOALS        73  95  74  97 /  30  20  10  20
CULLMAN       74  94  75  97 /  30  30  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  72  94  73  97 /  30  30  10  20
FT PAYNE      71  93  72  97 /  30  30  10  30
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JE/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
130 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-131115-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
130 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(THROUGH TONIGHT)...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS AREA WILL AID NORMAL
DAYTIME HEATING...ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE MOST PART...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA. PERSONS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE URGED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID OR LIMIT
EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
...DURING THE TIME OF PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINATION COULD PRODUCE
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...
SO BETTER DETAIL WILL BE AVAILABLE IN FURTHER OUTLOOKS.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

15/CBD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1133 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

ALZ010-121730-
DE KALB-
1133 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS DEKALB COUNTY...

AT 1130 AM...RADAR SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM NEAR IDER SOUTH TO NEAR SYLVANIA. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN FYFFE AND GERALDINE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 MPH. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE VALLEY
HEAD...FORT PAYNE...MENTONE AND INTERSTATE 59. WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

15/CBD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
140 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

ALZ005-006-008-121930-
LIMESTONE-MADISON-MARSHALL-
140 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MADISON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES...

AT 135 PM...RADAR SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM HAMPTON COVE SOUTH TO NEAR LAKE GUNTERSVILLE. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MPH. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE GRANT...
GUNTERSVILLE...COLUMBUS CITY AND LAKE GUNTERSVILLE. WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. BOATERS ALONG LAKE GUNTERSVILLE SHOULD SEEK
SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

15/CBD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
233 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 W GUNTERSVILLE        34.36N 86.41W
07/12/2004                   MARSHALL           AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 69 NEAR SCANT CITY.

0208 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W GUNTERSVILLE        34.36N 86.34W
07/12/2004                   MARSHALL           AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR WARRENTON.

&&

ELLIOTT/ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
259 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

ALZ006-122100-
MADISON-
259 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHEAST
MADISON COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MADISON COUNTY WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND AFFECT NEW MARKET...DEPOSIT AND MAYSVILLE THROUGH 4
PM. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS STORM MOVES OVER THE AREA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND TAKE COVER UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

PB