Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
333 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING AROUND THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WITH
SOME SEVERE REPORTS NOTED THUS FAR OVER SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTY...
AND OTHER REPORTS OVER CENTRAL AL...EASTERN TN...AND NORTHERN MS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE REMAINS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX NOW OVER N/CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH ITS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ABOUT
DISSIPATED. THE CUMULUS FIELD WEST OF IT WAS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST...TO MSL AS OF DISCUSSION TIME. THAT DISTURBANCE...AND SOME
OTHERS NEAR MEM AND SE ARKANSAS WERE MOVING TOWARD THIS WAY IN A
PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...WARM TO HOT TEMPS
RULED WITH AIR TEMPS AOA 90 AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S.

SHORTER TERM...THIS SEASONALLY WARM TO HOT WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE SE UNITED STATES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WEAK...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN THROUGH THUR. IT WILL CONTINUE A SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
TYPICAL SUMMER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...PLUS INTERACTION WITH
PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES KEEPS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION GOING THRU
WED. IN ADDITION...THE PROXIMITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT NEARING THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION DURING THUR.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST LOOKS
REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...THEN DIVERGES OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO MAINLY IN HOW
THE NORTHERN STREAM IN HANDLES TIMING OF SYSTEMS COMING OFF OF THE
WEST PACIFIC. THOSE EFFECTS HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THIS
REGION AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE UNITED STATES...BUT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK. A LOOK AT GFS PRECIP OUTPUT...ALONG WITH LIFTED INDEXES AND K
INDEXES SUGGEST A DRY WEEKEND FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH TYPICAL
HIGH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM
DURING THIS PERIOD.

MANY THANKS TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    71  87  69  89 /  40  40  30  30
SHOALS        71  87  69  89 /  40  40  30  30
CULLMAN       71  88  69  89 /  40  40  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  70  87  68  88 /  40  40  30  30
FT PAYNE      69  87  67  88 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

RSB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-071000-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(THROUGH TONIGHT)...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DUE TO HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH...AS WELL AS HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES. THE BEST TIME FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 7 PM.

IN ADDITION....THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90
DEGREES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

OTHERWISE...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PREVAIL LATER IN
THE WEEK...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
A POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

SCHAUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
105 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

ALZ009-010-061915-
DE KALB-JACKSON-
105 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER JACKSON COUNTY...
STORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY FROM RUSSELL
CAVE NATIONAL MONUMENT TO BRIDGEPORT. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH AND WILL PRODUCE 30 MPH WIND GUSTS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG THE MARION COUNTY
TENNESSEE AND JACKSON COUNTY LINE. DRIVERS ALONG HIGHWAY 72 NEAR
BRIDGEPORT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES.

JDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
130 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

ALZ009-010-061930-
DE KALB-JACKSON-
130 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER DEKALB COUNTY...
ONE STRONG STORM IS BETWEEN CROSSVILLE AND COLLINSVILLE...
GENERALLY ALONG I59 NEAR THE 205 MILE MARKER. THIS STORM IS MOVING
TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH AND WILL PRODUCE 30 MPH WIND GUSTS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG A LINE FROM
PORTERSVILLE TO DOGTOWN. DRIVERS ALONG INTERSTATE 59 IN SOUTHERN
DEKALB COUNTY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES.

JDG

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