Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS Huntsville, AL

000 
WGUS74 KHUN 090940
FFSHUN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
335 AM CST THU DEC 9 2004

ALC033-059-077-091415-
FRANKLIN AL-LAUDERDALE AL-COLBERT AL-
339 AM CST THU DEC 9 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 AM CST FOR COLBERT...
LAUDERDALE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 339 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXTENDING ALMOST TO MEMPHIS 
TENNESSEE...SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN 
INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS RAIN BAND...AND THE BAND WILL 
SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOODING IS 
IMMINENT IF NOT ALREADY OCCURRING.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
  UNDERWOOD-PETERSVILLE...TUSCUMBIA...SHEFFIELD...MUSCLE SHOALS...
  LEXINGTON...LEIGHTON...KILLEN...FLORENCE AND CHEROKEE

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO 
CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER 
TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO 
ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR
REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HUNTSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3433 8813 3431 8758 3468 8751 3500 8722
      3502 8817

$$

27

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
915 PM CST WED DEC 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW MORE HOURS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SW. INFRARED/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
ANIMATION INDICATED EXTENSIVE CLOUDS HAVE COVERED THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. ANALYSIS OF 09/0000Z UPPER AIR CHARTS KEPT THE HIGHEST COLUMN
MOISTURE VALUES FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD WERE RATHER DRY
WITH 00Z QPF OVER THE VALLEY AROUND 1/2 INCH...BUT MUCH HIGHER VALUES
WERE NOTED TOWARD THE GULF COAST. REGIONAL RADARS WERE SHOWING RAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH +28 DBZ REFLECTIVITY
JUST NEARING OUR 124 NMI RANGE RING.

JUST A FEW UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING. WILL UP
SKY COVERAGE TO CLOUDY AND WORK WITH WORDING REGARDING START OF RAIN.
A ROUGH LOOK SUGGEST IT SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THE WEST AND
OVER SPREAD THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA BY 3 AM. LIGHTNING TRENDS FROM
THE MORE SW LOCATED AREA OF SHOWERS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GET A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER NW ALABAMA BEFORE DAYBREAK THUR... WHICH WILL
BE ADDED. WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A CAT OR SO FOR THE CENTRAL AND EAST
ZONES...WITH TEMPS AT FT PAYNE AND MERIDIANVILLE 45/46 RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING CONCERNS...
AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WITH MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL...IF NOT AT FLOOD STAGE NOW...WILL LIKELY RISE
AGAIN TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AGAIN. AREAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE
NEXT DAY SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES OVER THE WEST...AND 2-4 INCHES FOR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NE ALABAMA...ESPECIALLY FROM LOCALIZED
T-STORMS. OUTPUT FROM THE NEW ETA AND NGM SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY OVER MIDDLE TENN...WITH THE 18Z GFS SPLITTING
QPF TOTALS NORTH/SOUTH...AND A MORE CONVECTIVE PHASE FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF HERE.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL
     6 AM FRIDAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL
     6 AM FRIDAY.

&&

BOYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
915 PM CST WED DEC 8 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-091100-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
915 PM CST WED DEC 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(TONIGHT)...

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...
BUT WILL NOT ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1/2 TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

WHILE RIVER FLOOD LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING...SOILS
REMAIN SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ALMOST
IMMEDIATE RUNOFF PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND RENEWED RIVER
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE A FLOOD WATCH BEGINS
AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE EAST OF
I-65. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL RESULT IN HIGHER ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. HOWEVER ONE OR TWO
OF THEM COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUCH AS CULLMAN OR
SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY...A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
UNLIKELY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...INTERESTED PARTIES WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

BCC