Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Huntsville, AL

000 
WGUS74 KHUN 062003
FFSHUN
ALC059-062330-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
203 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
CST...

AT 203 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF FRANKLIN COUNTY. RADAR 
ESTIMATES SHOW THAT NEARLY TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN 
SINCE 8 AM IN THE CEDAR CREEK...LITTLE BEAR CREEK AND BEAR CREEK 
BASINS OF NORTHWEST FRANKLIN COUNTY. GROUND TRUTH NUMBERS SHOW THAT 
1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. 

RAINFALL OF AN INCH PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 530 PM CST INCLUDE...
PHIL CAMPBELL...RED BAY...RUSSELLVILLE AND BELGREEN.

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE VEHICLE RELATED. NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE OR
WALK ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE COVERED BY FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER DEPTH
MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. ABANDON VEHICLES
THAT STALL OR BEGIN TO FLOAT. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE THE
FLOOD.

REPORT FLOODING INCIDENTS TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY...SO IT CAN BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN 
HUNTSVILLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR TO YOUR FAVORITE 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3458 8752 3420 8755 3420 8816 3458 8816

$$

JE/23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CST MON DEC 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY AFFECTING
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHWEST...WHERE A COUPLE OF FFWS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN NEEDED. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...INCLUDING 63 AT KMSL AND 61 AT KHSV.

HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THIS MORNING TO EXPAND FLOOD WATCH TO BE IN
EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL COUNTIES...AND RAISED POPS TO 100 FOR ALL
AREAS. AFTER THIS INITIAL BAND MOVES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE RAIN IN MOST AREAS. ANOTHER BAND IS EVIDENT ON RADAR
ACROSS CENTRAL MS...SO CURRENT THINKING IS TO LEAVE POPS AS IS FOR
NOW. ANTICIPATE MAIN BREAK WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER WARM
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE. WITH RAIN CONTINUING
OFF AND ON THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
DOESNT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S IN MANY AREAS...CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S LOOKS REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AS
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MAY NEED TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT IN THE
EAST...WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S...AND WARM
FRONT WILL BE LATER MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON TUE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON TUE.

&&

24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
503 AM CST MON DEC 6 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-061900-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
503 AM CST MON DEC 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF I65.
AREAS FROM WATERLOO TO RED BAY WILL SEE THE MOST RAIN TODAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONG WIND PROFILES TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MONDAY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK. A MUCH MORE PRIME AREA FOR TORNADOES EXISTS OVER
MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.

WE EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO APPROACH THE SHOALS AREA AROUND 230
AM AND BRING A LINE OF 40 TO 70 MPH WINDS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

BESIDES DAMAGING WINDS...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH NOON ON
TUESDAY. WITH THE GROUND NEARLY SATURATED FROM THE RAIN OVER THE LAST
2 WEEKS...FLOODING IS LIKELY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG CREEKS...
STREAMS AND SOME RIVERS. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED ACROSS THE
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING I65 BY MID MORNING...AND
HELP PUSH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
VALLEY DURING THE MORNING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MORNING
COMMUTE WILL BE WET...WITH ISOLATED RUNOFF AND FLOODING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

JDG