Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Huntsville, AL

000 
WGUS74 KHUN 010057
FFSHUN
TNC103-010345-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
655 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM
CST...

AT 655 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN 
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTY. 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS 
MANY LOCATIONS SINCE THIS MORNING...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS 
THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.  

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 730 PM CST INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE AND PETERSBURG

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...
ACT QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS.

REPORT FLOODING INCIDENTS TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY...SO IT CAN BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
HUNTSVILLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR TO YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3524 8677 3503 8680 3501 8636 3522 8640
      3535 8651

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
854 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MANY FACTORS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
TODAY.

1)  SOIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SATURATE THIS MORNING ACROSS NW AL
WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF SHRA.  A COUPLE REPORTS OVER 1.25 INCHES SINCE
06Z ALREADY.  COUNTY FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS THAN 2 INCHES
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS, AND THAT IS LIKELY A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

2)  8H AND SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATE VERY HIGH MOIST CONTENT WITHIN
THE THETA-E RIDGE.  PWAT OF 1.61 INCHES AT KJAN.  MODERATE THETA-E
ADVECTION BAND NOW CROSSING THROUGH WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE.

3)  ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL MOVE STORMS RIGHT ALONG, ECHO
TRAINING LOOKS TO BECOME A PROBLEM GIVEN THE STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR W.  WAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET BASICALLY ACROSS MS, LA, TX
SHOULD MOVE OUR WAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

50KT INFLOW WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (6KM) ON THE
ORDER OF 60KT+.  KGWX PROFILER CONTINUES TO WARRANT LLWS IN THE TAFS
AS WELL.  SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY WITH SOME THREAT OF
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE STRONGER LINEAR STORMS.

THE LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROF AND
COLD FRONT.  THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS QUITE STRONG, ESPECIALLY OVER E
TX THIS MORNING.  CONVECTIVE CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BACK INTO
THIS AREA, SUGGESTIVE OF A LENGHTIER PERIOD OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL
INTO THIS EVENING.  WILL PROLONG THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING ALL AREAS
THIS EVENING.
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT ALL AREAS.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT ALL AREAS.

&&

KULA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-010300-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
1228 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON DRAGGING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.  WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRAWN NORTH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA...PRODUCING SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 72.  DUE TO LOOSE AND
SATURATED SOIL...TREES WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DOWNFALL.

THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FLOODING
RAINS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND 1 INCH IS QUITE
POSSIBLE...ON TOP OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALREADY FALLEN IN THIS AREA.
LIGHTER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER
NORTHEAST ALABAMA...WHERE STEEPER TERRAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
RUNOFF PROBLEM.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN NOT UNTIL SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO RELAY REPORTS OF
FLOODING OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
112 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

ALZ003-004-302000-
FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-
112 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR EASTERN FRANKLIN AND ALL OF LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 2:00 PM...

AN INTENSE THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY...OR ABOUT 15
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PHIL CAMPBELL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH INTO
EASTERN FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES.  THE STORM WILL LAST ONLY 15
TO 20 MINUTES...BUT COULD EASILY PACK A PUNCH.  VERY STRONG WINDS
ALOFT MAY BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE AS HEAVY RAIN FALLS WITH THIS
STORM...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH LIKELY...POSSIBLY REACHING 50 MPH.
THIS WILL CAUSE TREE DAMAGE RATHER EASILY WITH SATURATED AND LOOSE
SOIL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...BUT THE SHORT
DURATION SHOULD LIMIT PROBLEMS TO NORMAL WATER PONDING.

YOU ARE ADVISED TO GO INSIDE DURING THIS DANGEROUS AND FAST MOVING
STORM.

KULA