Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Huntsville, AL

000 
WGUS74 KHUN 301759
FFSHUN
ALC077-302230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LAUDERDALE COUNTY UNTIL 4:30 
PM...

AT 1157 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
BAND OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  THESE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE 
WARNED AREA BETWEEN 12:15 PM AND 1:00 PM...PRODUCING HEAVY 
DOWNPOURS.  RAINFALL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IS LIKELY THROUGH 2 PM.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 500 PM CST 
INCLUDE...FLORENCE...KILLEN...LEXINGTON...AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED TRIBUTARIES OF CYPRESS CREEK RISING TO 
BANKFULL RAPIDLY.  FURTHER RUNOFF WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE VEHICLE RELATED. NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE OR
WALK ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE COVERED BY FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER DEPTH
MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. ABANDON VEHICLES
THAT STALL OR BEGIN TO FLOAT. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE THE
FLOOD.

REPORT FLOODING INCIDENTS TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY...SO IT CAN BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
HUNTSVILLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR TO YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3477 8866 3462 8854 3493 8807 3482 8725
      3499 8724 3502 8813

$$

KULA

000 
WGUS74 KHUN 301927
FFSHUN
ALC077-302230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
125 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

...FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ACROSS LAUDERDALE COUNTY...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4:30 PM.

AT 110 PM CST...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR LAUDERDALE COUNTY REPORTED 
NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING BETWEEN 
CENTRAL AND ANDERSON.  FLOODED ROADS ARE BECOMING A DEFINITE THREAT 
TO MOTORISTS.

UNFORTUNATELY...MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY.  A LARGE 
DEVELOPING AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER 
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THROUGH 
4:30 PM.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL.

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE VEHICLE RELATED. NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE OR
WALK ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE COVERED BY FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER DEPTH
MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. ABANDON VEHICLES
THAT STALL OR BEGIN TO FLOAT. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE THE
FLOOD.

REPORT FLOODING INCIDENTS TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY...SO IT CAN BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
HUNTSVILLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR TO YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3500 8722 3482 8728 3477 8785 3492 8806
      3505 8812

$$

KULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
854 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MANY FACTORS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
TODAY.

1)  SOIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SATURATE THIS MORNING ACROSS NW AL
WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF SHRA.  A COUPLE REPORTS OVER 1.25 INCHES SINCE
06Z ALREADY.  COUNTY FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS THAN 2 INCHES
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS, AND THAT IS LIKELY A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

2)  8H AND SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATE VERY HIGH MOIST CONTENT WITHIN
THE THETA-E RIDGE.  PWAT OF 1.61 INCHES AT KJAN.  MODERATE THETA-E
ADVECTION BAND NOW CROSSING THROUGH WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE.

3)  ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL MOVE STORMS RIGHT ALONG, ECHO
TRAINING LOOKS TO BECOME A PROBLEM GIVEN THE STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR W.  WAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET BASICALLY ACROSS MS, LA, TX
SHOULD MOVE OUR WAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

50KT INFLOW WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (6KM) ON THE
ORDER OF 60KT+.  KGWX PROFILER CONTINUES TO WARRANT LLWS IN THE TAFS
AS WELL.  SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY WITH SOME THREAT OF
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE STRONGER LINEAR STORMS.

THE LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROF AND
COLD FRONT.  THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS QUITE STRONG, ESPECIALLY OVER E
TX THIS MORNING.  CONVECTIVE CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BACK INTO
THIS AREA, SUGGESTIVE OF A LENGHTIER PERIOD OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL
INTO THIS EVENING.  WILL PROLONG THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING ALL AREAS
THIS EVENING.
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT ALL AREAS.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT ALL AREAS.

&&

KULA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
500 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-301900-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
500 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THANKS TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT...ONE OR TWO
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. IN
ADDITION...LOOSE SATURATED SOIL MAY ALLOW TREES TO FALL MORE EASILY
DESPITE WEAKER WINDS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FLOODING RAINS...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY...WITH ISOLATED
3 INCH AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE HEAVIER RAIN AXIS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT. FOR THESE REASONS...A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE HUNTSVILLE AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

27