Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
353 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
RARE MID-OCTOBER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE ACTION HAS BEEN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE GETTING BACK INTO THE
HEAVY ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AT 08Z...RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS TSRA RIGHT ON THE HUN CWFA BORDER. IN
GENERAL...THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST WITH A BIT OF A SERLY DRIFT.
I FEEL CONFIDENT THAT AT SOME POINT TODAY...EVERYONE WILL GET SOME
RAIN AND THUS HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL ON POPS. WILL ALSO BE CONTINUING
TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE. SHEAR REMAINS HIGH...WITH H8
WINDS OUT OF THE WSW AT 40 TO 45 KTS...AND SFC WINDS OUT OF THE DUE
SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT TO TRANSPORT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO STILL THE
THREAT OF TORNADOES TODAY WITH THE STRONG SHEAR. IN OTHER WORDS...
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF EVERYTHING TODAY.

MEANWHILE...WITH S/SW WINDS...ANY BREAKS IN THE PRECIP WILL LEND
THEMSELVES TO A SPIKE IN TEMPS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
SHOALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. BUT IN THE
EAST...WHERE TEMPS/DEWS REMAIN LOW...THAT POSSIBLE RISE WOULD JUST
BRING THEM TO WHERE EVERYONE ELSE WILL ALREADY BE ENDING UP. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE SOCKED IN MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH...ANY BREAKS WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL MIDDAY OR LATER. WILL DISCUSS THE FLOOD THREAT IN A BIT.

ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL...AS ON MONDAY...
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO REFLECT
THIS. I MAY STILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOOK LOWS A LITTLE WARMER WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. BUT WINDS WILL BE DROPPING OFF AND SO ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (OR MAYBE EVEN WITHOUT THEM)...PATCHY FOG...
POSSIBLY DENSE...COULD OCCUR. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST.

WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD IN...THERE IS STILL SOME UPLIFT AND THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ISNT GONE YET. IF WE DO GET TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY IT COULD AGAIN BE SEVERE.

MIDDLE PORTION (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
STILL BELIEVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST...THIS SHOULD DRAG SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA...AND COOL US DOWN A BIT (AT LEAST AT NIGHT).
MODELS ARE KIND OF ALL OVER THE PLACE SO FOR NOW I TOOK A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION...WHICH IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

DID NOT TOUCH THE EXTENDED (SUNDAY/MONDAY)...IF WEATHER/TIME ALLOWS
I WILL LIKELY MAKE SOME TWEAKS IN THE GRIDS LATER TONIGHT.

HYDROLOGY...
TRAINING TSTMS ARE GOING TO BE A BIG THREAT TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
LAUDERDALE AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY...AND
SOME ISOLATED SPOTS ALREADY SAW COPIOUS RAIN WITH THE TWO SUPERCELLS
YESTERDAY. WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TODAY.

SEVERE CLIMATOLOGY...
JUST A BRIEF NOTE. OCTOBER TORNADOES ARE RARE. THE LAST WERE TWO F0
TORNADOES IN OCTOBER 2002. BEFORE THAT...WE HAVE TO GO ALL THE WAY
BACK TO 1974 TO FIND ONE. THE ONLY STRONG (F2 OR GREATER) TORNADO
OUTBREAKS IN OCTOBER WERE IN 1909 AND 1967.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  64  81  61 / 100  40  20  10
SHOALS        79  66  82  60 / 100  40  20  10
CULLMAN       77  66  82  62 / 100  40  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  74  63  81  60 / 100  40  20  10
FT PAYNE      76  62  81  59 / 100  40  20  20
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 AM ALL COUNTIES
     (ALZ001>010-016).
TN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 AM ALL COUNTIES
     (TNZ076-096-097).
&&

JE/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
510 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-191800-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
510 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN STRONGER STORMS
EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND HEAVY RAIN.
THE BEST TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

SS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
534 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

ALZ004-005-007-191130-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MORGAN-
534 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS LIMESTONE...LAWRENCE...AND INTO MORGAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 AM.  THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 8
AM CDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR A FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.

09

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
536 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

ALZ009-191130-
JACKSON-
536 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH 630
AM.  THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST EAST AT 30 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 8
AM CDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR A FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.

09

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

ALZ003-191145-
FRANKLIN AL-
543 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH 645
AM.  THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST EAST AT 35 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 8
AM CDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR A FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.

09

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
605 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

TNZ076-096-097-191200-
FRANKLIN TN-LINCOLN-MOORE-
605 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THEREFORE...THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE HUNTSVILLE COUNTY WARNING AREA HAVE BEEN
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 864...

IN TENNESSEE...FRANKLIN...LINCOLN...AND MOORE.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE. THE
POSSIBILITY WILL EXIST FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THUS...THE POSSIBILITY WILL EXIST FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR A FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.

09