Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
220 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...HANFORD AND
EDWARDS AFB RADARS SHOW CONVECTION CONTINUING OVER MAINLY TULARE
AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER AND
JUST EAST OF THE CREST FROM TUOLUMNE MEADOWS TO DEVILS POSTPILE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST, I EXPECT ALL OF
THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, HOWEVER JUST HOW
FAR SOUTHWEST THE CONVECTION GETS OVER THE KERN MOUNTAINS IS A
LITTLE PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME. WILL OPT TO KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KERN MOUNTAINS FOR THIS EVENING, BUT NOT
INCLUDE IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT AS STORMS SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME
HOLDING TOGETHER OVER THE VALLEY FLOORS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
PAST FEW EVENINGS, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
CONVECTION ENDS.  ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS
AND SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. AS FOR THE
THREAT OF SIERRA CONVECTION, NO HUGE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW, HOWEVER ONE WOULD EXPECT SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTION IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW TO EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. WILL
OPT TO KEEP THE CHANCES GOING THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY, BUT LEAVE
THINGS DRY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPEAKING OF SATURDAY, STILL
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MODEL AS IT KEEPS THE
PERSISTENT VERY WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...00Z EXTENDED PROGS
INDICATED THE WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER CALIFORNIA MONDAY. HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK
TROUGHINESS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SHIFTING EASTWARD AND A RIDGE
OFF THE COAST. THE LOW THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE CWFA SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DUDLEY/BEAN