Tornado Warning 53, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
914 AM CST WED NOV 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM GALVESTON ISLAND TO LEAGUE CITY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF HARRIS
COUNTY. HARRIS COUNTY RAIN GAUGE DATA IS INDICATING RAINFALL RATES
AVERAGING AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT THE
STORMS ARE QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD WHICH IS RESULTING IN ONLY SOME
VERY MINOR STREET FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THAT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH VERY
GOOD CONVERGENCE PERSISTING AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER LOW. 42
&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS BASED
ON THE CURRENT 6 TO 9 FOOT SEAS. WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER CAUTION
CRITERIA IN GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAY AREAS THIS AM BUT WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FEEL CAUTION FLAG
STILL WARRANTED. AFTER UPPER TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX WITH WINDS AND SEAS BECOMING BENIGN. NEXT FRONT ON TRACK
FOR LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. 30
&&

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL PLAGUE THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AS
UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WHILE MOSTLY HEAVY RAINERS BRINING IFR VSBY
AND CIGS...SOME SPIN OCCASIONALLY INDICATED IN RADAR VELOCITY DATA
SO WONT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. IN BETWEEN THE RAIN BANDS MAY HAVE
SOME VFR BREAKS BUT NOT LONG LIVED. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER WET GROUNDS LEADING TO FOG. 30
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SE TX THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SCA 00 TO 60 NM WATERS.
SCEC BAYS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 61 74 59 74 / 100 60 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH)         74 64 76 60 76 / 100 60 40 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS)       75 67 76 65 76 / 100 80 40 10 10
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CST WED NOV 17 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
700 AM CST WED NOV 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS TODAY.  AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...AND
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

THERE IS ALSO AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES.  THESE WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THOSE COMMUNITIES NEAR GALVESTON BAY.  LATER
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN UPPER
LOW CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO LAST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD.

HIGH TIDE LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY GENERATE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF GALVESTON BAY AND THE
NORTHERN FACING SHORES OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.
WITH HIGH TIDE OCCURRING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...THESE TIDE LEVELS WILL
RELAX THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.