Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF LUFKIN
TO HUNTSVILLE TO AUSTIN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS
BUILDING. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AND
FEEL THIS WILL BE TAPPED AS STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WITH CAPES AOA
3000 J/KG...LIS OF -6...K INDICES 35 TO 40 AND PWS INCREASING TO
1.6 INCHES...FEEL THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS INCREASING. ACARS
SOUNDINGS FOR IAH AND CLL ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED V NEAR THE
SURFACE...INDICATIVE OF DOWNBURSTS. WILL TAPER POPS...HIGHEST NORTH
AND LOWER TOWARD THE COAST. MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES WILL PROBABLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY AND WILL BUMP
POPS TO 30 OVER THE EAST. WILL LOWER TEMPS MID-WEEK AND BEYOND AS
HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER EXTREME WEST
TEXAS. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND IT APPEARS THAT A SERIES OF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST. TIMING THESE SYSTEMS AND
THEIR AREAL EXTENT IS DIFFICULT SO WILL BROAD BRUSH FOR NOW AND JUST
CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT INTO THE AREA ON THURS/FRI AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. WINDS HAVE SLACKENED OVER THE WATER BUT
SEAS REMAIN HIGH. CURRENT MARINE HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. 43/46

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SCA  20-60 NM GULF.
SCEC  0-20 NM GULF.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)  76 95 74 92 74 / 50 20 20 20 25
HOUSTON (IAH)          77 93 76 92 76 / 50 20 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS)        79 85 79 85 78 / 30 20 20 20 20

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
400 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-010500-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
400 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL SAG SOUTH THIS EVENING. THESE BOUNDARIES
COUPLED WITH INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. JUST LIKE THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION OR CAP...IS SUPPRESSING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE CAP IS WEAKEST NORTH OF A BRYAN TO
LIVINGSTON LINE...SO THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DISSIPATE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AS UPPER LEVEL
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. A SERIES OF MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
WILL RACE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST. THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH EAST TEXAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SECOND SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-010300-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WASHINGTON-
405 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF
LINE FROM MOSS HILL TO BRENHAM. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZOS...
BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...AND WASHINGTON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...
THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY
AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.  IF
OUTSIDE...MOVE TO SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED WATCH TYPE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-010300-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WASHINGTON-
405 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE FROM MOSS
HILL TO BRENHAM. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...
HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WALKER...AND WASHINGTON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...
THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY
AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES...STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY
SOME HAIL.