Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
515 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2004

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE HWOHGX TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING OVER
THE NW ZONES ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROF OR DRYLINE. GIVEN VERY LOW WET
BULB ZEROS...HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. IN FACT...JUST
ISSUED A WARNING FOR BURLESON COUNTY. EXPECT THAT THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL END BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  35

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS/CLOUDS FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE E/NE THIS AFTN ALONG WITH
THE ASSOCIATED S/W. WHILE LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE W/SW
AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH BY WAY OF BOUNDARIES AND AD-
DITIONAL SPEED MAXS DOWNSTREAM...NOT RULING OUT POPS ENTIRELY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEATING ALONG
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT COULD PRODUCE A STORM OR TWO. WILL CONTIN-
UE WITH 20-30 POPS. CLOUDS/POPS TO RETURN (AS IF THEY EVER REALLY
LEFT) OVERNIGHT IN THE COLD POST-FRONTAL REGIME. WHILE THE CORE
OF THE LOW DOES APPEAR TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...NOT SURE IF
THE LOWER/MID LEVELS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN/PRODUCE FREE-
ZING PCPN FOR THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. A FLATT-ISH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE APPROACHING TROF SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED DRYING/CLOUD LESS ENVIRONMENT FOR THE BEGINNING PART OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THIS COMES TO AN END BY MID WEEK WITH THE WIND
UP OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF AT/AROUND THE CALIFORNIA BAJA. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND LOW POPS (IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/W ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE DEEPENING SYSTEM) PROGGED FOR THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
41/45
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SCEC  20-60 NM WATERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)   46 53 34 56 31/ 30 30 20 00
HOUSTON (IAH)           51 56 37 57 34/ 20 30 20 00
GALVESTON (GLS)         54 59 44 55 40/ 20 20 20 00
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
505 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
505 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.