Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
152 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
NEW CONFERENCE CALL WITH SPC EXTENDED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 9 PM. 46

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA IN ROBERTSON COUNTY. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL CELLS MOVE INLAND
FROM THE GULF THAT HAVE EXHIBITED ROTATION...AND VAD WIND PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ROTATION. WILL
LIKELY BE A BUSY NIGHT HERE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH EARLY MORNING TOMORROW. WE ARE LEANING TOWARD EXTENDING THE
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THE 4 AM ZONE PACKAGE IN CASE THE SHOWERS DO
LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN MIDNIGHT. IF THINGS DONT PAN OUT...THE
EVENING SHIFT CAN CANCEL IF NECESSARY.

SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT
WILL BE MOVING RATHER RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF RETURN MOISTURE AND ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL AREAS ON SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY AND THIS MAY IMPACT OUR AREA LATE ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 53 57 37 61 44 /  60 05 00 00 00
HOUSTON (IAH)         54 59 38 60 44 /  80 05 00 00 00
GALVESTON (GLS)       60 66 45 61 53 /  80 10 00 00 00

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 9 PM.
FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
SCA 00-60 NM WATERS.
SCEC BAYS.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
455 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-241200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
455 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
...A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST...

AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WITH THE SOIL ALREADY SATURATED...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL LEAD TO A FLOOD SITUATION. EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 INCHES. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT.

AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...STRONG WIND SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH SOME THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL EXIST AS WELL.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT ENDING THE FLOOD
AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

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