Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
225 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NW OF
THE AREA AND SCT STRONG/SVR TSTMS ARE THE RESULT. WE
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ALSO EXPECT SCT
SHWRS AND TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE.

MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIP COVERAGE AND SVR TSTM POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING ACROSS SE TX. BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NW ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THIS ZONE LATE
THIS AFT/EARLY EVE WITH HEATING STILL OCCURRING. PRECIP
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE FURTHER SOUTH AS
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER...BASED
ON THE SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER SE TX...THINK THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WILL
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AREAWIDE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SVR
TSTM POSSIBILITY...WITH THE MAIN THREATS DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

WILL DROP POPS TOMORROW WITH VERY DRY AIR PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
QUITE A CHANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...AM
FORECASTING AT OR BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS
ON SAT MORNING.

FOR THE MARINE AREA...WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO CAUTION
LEVELS ON THU BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR
OVER WARM WATER AND THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 88 63 88 61/ 70 00 00 00
HOUSTON(IAH)          70 89 64 88 63/ 60 05 00 00
GALVESTON (GLS)       76 87 72 86 72/ 60 10 00 00
&&

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