Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
112 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SE TX WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK TROUGHY PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS CHALLENGES ARE RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.  THE BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...MONDAY...THEN WEDNESDAY AND DAYS FOLLOWING.

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY WAS BEING CARVED OUT
A BIT WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE WEAK FRONT AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP PROVIDE SOME LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EVENING.  THE ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY BEGINNING AS THE CAP ALOFT
HAS BEEN ERODED AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WAS REACHED.  MONDAY THE
WESTERLY TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL BE AIDED BY AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THOSE TWO FACTORS JOINING WITH
THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD HELP BETTER RAIN CHANCES.  THINK THAT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WETTER GFS AND DRIER ETA IS STILL THE BETTER
WAY TO GO.  THE ETA MODEL IS THEN SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR MOVING
OVERHEAD TUESDAY.  EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS MUCH WETTER...FEEL THAT A
COMPROMISE TOWARD THE ETA IS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWARD A BIT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THEREAFTER...
SOME RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE EAST.

WILL UP POPS A BIT MONDAY TO REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ETA AND
GFS.  MORE CLOUD ON COVER MONDAY ALSO RELATES TO LOWER DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  EXPECT THESE TO RECOVER BY TUESDAY.

PL-40
33

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)  72 91 70 93 73 / 30 50 30 20 20
HOUSTON(IAH)           75 89 72 93 74 / 40 50 30 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS)        80 88 78 88 79 / 40 50 30 30 20

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
645 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-261200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
645 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND
PULL UP NEARLY STATIONARY BY THE COAST TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH THIS FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO LIGHT UPPER
LEVEL WINDS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
LOCALIZED 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGER STORMS. THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...
PULSE SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE COOL FRONT WILL SHOULD MEANDER BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. SLOW STORM MOTIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY...SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.