Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1025 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER SE TX THIS MORNING.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS OVER OK AND N TX WERE MOVING INTO
THE AREA.  THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE RAIN AND SEVERE
STORM CHANCES.

THE MODELS WERE OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO THE POPS TODAY.  THE
RUC AND ETA HAD BETTER RAIN CHANCES.  ALTHOUGH THE RUC HAD TOO MUCH
COVERAGE THIS MORNING...THE MODEL DID HAVE THE AREA CORRECT.  THE GFS
ALSO PICKED UP ON THE 700 MB MOISTURE PATTERN BETTER THAN THE OTHER
TWO.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RUC AND ETA SOLUTIONS.

THE 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED SOME VERY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  THE LI/S RANGED FROM -8 TO -11 AND CAPE VALUES WERE ABOUT
5000.  SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO OCCUR GIVEN THE K-INDEX
OF 36 AT LCH AND THE FACT THAT THE 700 MB DEWPOINTS WERE FROM 2 TO 4
CELSIUS AT THE COAST.  EVEN THOUGH THE SCATTERED STORMS AT 15Z WERE
MOVING INLAND AT 15 KNOTS...THEY WERE PRODUCING 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH
RAINFALL.  ALSO...THE SEA BREEZE AND A BAY BREEZE MAY GET INVOLVED
LATER.  ALL OF THESE SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH.

WILL ADJUST POPS UPWARD A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL MENTION THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBILITIES IN THOSE COUNTIES...ALSO.  THINK THAT THE SEVERE
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
MAY NEED TO UPDATE FOR THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR FOR THE EVENING.

PL-40
43/99

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.PREV PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 95 75 95 75 92/20 10 20 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH)         94 76 94 76 91/30 20 30 20 40
GALVESTON (GLS)       90 80 90 80 88/20 20 20 20 40

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1033 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-072300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
1033 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LIVINGSTON TO CONROE TO BAY CITY LINE. RAINFALL WILL
AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 3
INCHES.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE. AS A RESULT...
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.