Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO HOUSTON TO ANGLETON.
STORMS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA. EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TO GENERALLY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINING MORNING HOURS AND ON INTO THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS OR WHERE TRAINING
DEVELOPS. ANY HEAVY RAINS THAT FALL ON LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
BEEN DUMPED ON CAN EXPECT FLOODING TO DEVELOP.

MODELS STILL FORECAST THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
ELONGATE. SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SO EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS TO STILL GET WET TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 42/43/30/46/36
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 73 88 75 93 / 80 50 60 40 30
HOUSTON(IAH)          83 73 89 75 92 / 80 50 60 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS)       83 76 86 78 87 / 80 50 60 40 30
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (325 AM CDT)...
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE VERY WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
SITTING/SPINNING ATOP THE REGION. PCPN COVERAGE HAS NOT BEEN AS PRE-
DICTABLE AS GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE SEEMED TO SUGGEST AND IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS PKG. BUT WILL KEEP WITH HIGH POP
NUMBERS TODAY (AND TONIGHT) WITH THE OBVIOUS PRESENCE OF LIFT/MOIST-
URE...AND THINGS COULD CRANK UP AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING. A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO ADD THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE ZONES ATTM AS THE CWA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A FAVOURABLE JET
QUAD AND PROGGED LAPSE RATES NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER THERE
ARE HINTS OF A JET MAX (IN WV LOOPS) TO GIVE PAUSE FOR THE POSSIBIL-
ITY OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PWS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED MENTION
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OFF TO THE NE. WHILE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS PROGGED
TO LINGER IN/AROUND THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL CAPPING
BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST POPS OF
30% LOOK REASONABLE FOR THESE DAYS. A MORE TYPICAL SE TX SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND AS WEAKISH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PUTS A KIBOSH ON MOST ACTIVITY...SAVE FOR WHATEVER THE SEABREEZE CAN
GENERATE. RIDGE TO BREAKDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXTENDED MODELS SEEM
TO OFFER A WET-LOOKING PATTERN FOR THE LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF UPPER
TROFS TRAVERSE THE SRN STATES. 41/47
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
732 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-161200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
732 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DOWNBURSTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS
QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 5
INCHES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES OVER THE AREA ARE VERY LIGHT WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE
SLOW MOVEMENT AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
RESULT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTERNOON STORMS COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED UP
TO 5 INCHES.  IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD REDUCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING OF ROADWAYS TODAY. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.