Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
311 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW...MAINLY WEST OF I-45. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE REMAINING
AFTERNOON HOURS AND ON INTO THIS EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTION...DEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS AND HIGH INSTABILITIES MAY LEAD TOWARD SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FUTURE LOCATION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE WHICH PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MODELS MOVE THIS LOW BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TOWARD NORTH TEXAS AND ELONGATE IT. IF THE LOW ENDS UP TO OUR
WEST...WE COULD SEE SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE BEST INFLOW OFF
THE GULF TAPS SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GULF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS NOW SURGING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. WILL MAKE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE HIGH
POPS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AREAWIDE FOR TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED 5 TO 10 INCH TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...EXACT LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LOWER POPS
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE.
42/43
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 88 74 88 75 / 30 60 40 60 30
HOUSTON(IAH)          74 87 75 87 75 / 30 60 40 60 30
GALVESTON (GLS)       79 86 79 86 79 / 40 70 40 60 30
&&

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