Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS IN FORT WORTH AREA ARE THROWING DOWN 75+ MPH WINDS AND THE
SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY HEADING SOUTHWARD. AM ABOUT TO ISSUE AN UPDATE TO
BUMP POPS UP NE. SPC IS ALSO GOING TO ISSUE A SVR TSTM BOX IN THE NE
CWA UNTIL 4 AM. HOUSTON METRO IS CLEAR FOR NOW...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARIES MENTIONED BELOW AND THE FAST SWD MOVEMENT...WILL BUMP
POPS UP THERE TOO AND ADD SVR MENTION.

PREV DISC:
UPPER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS N TX HAS ALLOWED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE
TSTMS TO FIRE IN THE FORT WORTH & DALLAS AREA THIS EVENING. SYNOPTIC
MODELS ACTUALLY DIDNT DUE TOO BAD OF A JOB DEPICTING THIS. THE 18Z
RUNS ALL SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDNIGHT IN NE TX AND TAKING
A SE TRACK DOWN THE SABINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT FCST SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
RIGHT NOW WITH HIGHER POPS NORTH AND SEVERE MENTIONED NE. WONT
ISSUE AN UPDATE UNLESS 00Z MODELS AND/OR RADAR TRENDS GIVE A GOOD
REASON TO DO SO. MOSTLY CONCERNED WITH AREAS EAST OF I-45 AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AS OF NOW...WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE N TX STORMS AS
THEY HEAD SOUTH. THOUGH THEY DONT APPEAR ON A SURFACE CHART...88D
REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT SHOWS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BNDRY SITUATED FROM
ROUGHLY SARGENT TO HUNTSVILLE TO CORRIGAN TO LUFKIN. IN ADDITION...
THERES LIKELY ANOTHER BOUNDARY SITUATED NORTHWEST OF THE CWA FROM
GROESBECK TO KGRK FROM THIS AFTNS STORMS.

NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK TO HAVE THE SAME FCST PROBLEM: WATCH FOR ANY
MCSS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM. MODELS ARENT PARTICULARLY GOOD AT THE
TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF THESE, BUT THEYRE ALL SHOWING GOOD
POSSIBILITIES OF THEM OCCURRING IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.

47/36/31

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)  74 93 75 91 71 / 40 20 30 30 30
HOUSTON (IAH)          76 93 75 91 71 / 50 20 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS)        78 85 78 86 73 / 40 20 20 20 20

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-020500-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
356 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO
HUNTSVILLE TO LIBERTY LINE...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO
HUNTSVILLE TO LIBERTY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH
TEXAS WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COUPLED
WITH THE APPROACHING DRY LINE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER TEXAS AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.