Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVER CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. COASTAL TROUGH HAS TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS. WARM FRONT
SHOULD PUSH NORTH TODAY ACROSS CWFA BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES FOR REST OF WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS JUST NORTH OF REGION NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING OVER CWFA. WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES...HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE. UPPER LOW
PROGGED TO MOVE SE TO OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY WITH TROUGHING SOUTH TO
TEXAS. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY LATE TUESDAY PUSHING MOISTURE
RIDGE TO EAST OF OUR REGION. DRYING EXPECTED BY MID WEEK DUE TO
COLD FRONT BRINGING COOLER AIR. THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. GFS INDICATE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS CWFA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

37/41/45
&&

MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN THE STRENGTHENING OF
ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

41
&&

AVIATION...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR REGION WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ALL DAY TODAY.
PREVAILING CEILINGS EXPECTED AT 1000 TO 2000 FT.

41/37/45
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
SCEC 20-60 NM COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 63 74 64 75 / 90 70 50 70 70
HOUSTON (IAH)         76 65 76 65 78 / 90 60 50 50 50
GALVESTON (GLS)       77 68 78 69 79 / 90 60 50 40 40
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
435 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-211200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
435 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND AND ON INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG WITH PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WITH THE
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...SOME FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. A LONG DURATION FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THROUGH TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS APPROACHING 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE
GROUND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS NEARLY SATURATED...A FLOOD
THREAT MAY DEVELOP.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY ON INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.