Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 AM CST TUE NOV 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...
STILL QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND A-
HEAD OF THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF WIDE
SPREAD STREET FLOODING IN/NEAR COMMUNITIES IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A BIT FURTHER N/NW THE COLD FRONT HAS
BEEN MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST. BEST GUESS ATTM PLACES
THE FRONT AT/AROUND A LINE FROM LFK TO BRENHAM WITH THE WARM FRONT
AT/AROUND A LINE FROM PSX TO BPT. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE TWO
FEATURES (ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOCATION OF THE JET ALOFT
(RRQ) AND THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER WRN TX) WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH TODAY...BUT WITH SOME CHANGES NAMELY
TO KEEP IT ONLY FOR THE CTRL/SRN ZONES. WE SHOULD SEE THE ORGANIZ-
ED STORMS TAPERING OFF LATER THIS AFTN AS THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT BEGINS TO FILTER DOWN. CLOUDS/PCPN
CHANCES (ALBEIT LOW) TO LINGER HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF HANGS
BACK A BIT. THIS SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE WED
AND WEAK RIDGING TAKES ITS PLACE. THU LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT (IF ONE
LIKES CLEAR SKIES AND COOL/DRY WX). THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK (AND
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND) TO STAY QUIET/SEASONABLE. LOW-LEVEL NLY FLOW
/CAA WILL PERSIST THRU FRI BEFORE THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF SE TX
AND THE RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD OVER THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
DRY/TEMPERATE WX PROGGED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK
COOL FRONT LATE SUNDAY HELPS REINFORCE THE LOWER TEMPS/DWPTS. ATTM
NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN WITH THIS FRONT. FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD LONG
RANGE PROGS GOING WITH A SERIES OF WEAKISH UPPER TROFS/LOWS MOVING
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN WILL KEEP WITH VERY
LOW/NIL POPS WITH THESE FEATURES FOR NOW. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE GULF WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AT
IAH...HOU...GLS & LBX. PRETTY GOOD POSSIBILITY OF PONDING AND/OR
FLOODING DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED IFR/LIFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 16Z-ISH. CURRENT THINKING
IS PREFRONTAL TROF SHOULD PUSH THIS MESS OFF TO THE EAST SHORTLY
AFTER NOON. NEXT ISSUE TO LOOK AT IS HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POST
FROPA IN THE WRAP AROUND STRATUS. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THAT LATER...
47

&&

.MARINE...
SAME GENERAL SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TSRA
SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER PREFRONTAL TROF & FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CONSIDERING
INTERACTION BETWEEN WARM SSTS & COOL AIRMASS POST FROPA. NOT A GOOD
DAY TO BE OUT ON A BOAT...  47

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF SE TX TODAY.
SCA BAYS AND GULF TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 51 64 43 71 /  80 20 05 00 00
HOUSTON (IAH)         74 54 66 45 71 / 100 30 05 00 00
GALVESTON (GLS)       78 60 67 56 69 / 100 30 05 00 00

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CST TUE NOV 2 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-031300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
700 AM CST TUE NOV 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 4 PM TODAY...

.DAY ONE..TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING AS THESE
SYSTEMS MOVE EAST AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LIBERTY TO FREEPORT. FLOODING OF STREETS...
FEEDER ROADS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD AVERAGE 1/2 INCH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ON TAP AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.