Flash Flood Warning 59, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AN IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
GRIMES/BRAZOS COUNTIES AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. RADAR ESTIMATES OF
6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN GRIMES COUNTY...YET NO
REPORTS OF FLOODING. THANKFULLY...IT APPEARS THAT THIS AREA OF
STORMS HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN.

AT 07Z...THERE IS A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG A LUFKIN TO SOUTH OF
COLLEGE STATION TO NORTH OF COTULLA LINE. MODELS DONT REALLY PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWS AOA 2
INCHES AGAIN TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA HINT AT 250 MB WINDS
REMAINING BROADLY DIVERGENT THROUGH SUNDAY. A LINGERING AND
WEAKENING 500 MB SHEAR AXIS IS ALSO PRESENT. SO WITH ALL THE
AFOREMENTIONED GOODIES LISTED ABOVE...IT SEEM REASONABLE THAT
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED...IT STILL APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE
TO ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL LIE ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES OVERNIGHT AND CONSIDERING
WHAT HAPPENED TONIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT POPS COAST/CENTRAL.
PWS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DRY BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE 20
POPS ON MON FOR NOW BUT THINK MONDAY-THURSDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY. NEW MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS WARM TEMPS NEXT WEEK AND THIS IS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO TEXAS. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE 100 DEGREE TEMPS
IT FORECAST YESTERDAY. 850 MB TEMPS DONT RISE MUCH SO FEEL
MID/UPPER 90S WILL SUFFICE. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE OF RAIN...HOWEVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM WILL HEAD THIS WAY.   43/40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)  93 75 94 75 95 / 30 20 30 20 20
HOUSTON(IAH)           93 77 95 76 95 / 40 30 40 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS)        91 80 91 81 91 / 40 30 40 20 20

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1235 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-311200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
1235 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
AND WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON
LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.