Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

000 
WGUS74 KHGX 092041
FFSHOU
TXC041-051-092130-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 PM CDT FRI JUL 9 2004

TH FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR BRAZOS AND BURLESON COUNTIES EFFECTIVE 
UNTIL 430 PM HAS BEEN CANCELED AS OF 335 PM. BE AWARE THAT ANOTHER 
ROUND OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...CURRENTLY EFFECTING 
MADISON AND GRIMES COUNTIES...MAY INDUCE FLOODING IN NORTHEAST 
BRAZOS COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY HOURLY 
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3080 9623 3052 9617 3044 9614 3035 9663
      3058 9687

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CDT FRI JUL 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER TX COAST.  THE
FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE WHAT IMPACT THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE ON SE TX TODAY.  OF THE MODELS...THE RUC APPEARED TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AT 12Z AND ITS
MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE ETA INITIALIZED POORLY BUT
SEEMED TO REBOUND QUICKLY.  ALL IN ALL...FEEL THAT AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD SE TX WILL CONTINUE UNDER GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND
DYNAMICS ALOFT FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

CONCERNING RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LIKE THE CURRENT FORECAST.  GOES SOUNDER
PW/S WERE ABOUT 2.1 INCHES NEAR THE COAST.  LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND
WERE LIKE THE LCH 12Z SOUNDING...PW/S NEAR 1.9.  THERE WAS DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.  CAN EXPECT RAINFALL RATES OF
ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.  THE
LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD...THOUGH THE COVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES MAY BE A BIT LESS WITH A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE THERE THIS
MORNING.  SEE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.

SEVERE CHANCES ARE VERY SLIGHT TODAY.  THERE WAS A COOL POOL ALOFT...
THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE WAS ABOUT -10 AND THERE WAS SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT INLAND OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  THE SHEAR PROFILE WAS FAVORABLE
FOR SOME WEAK ROTATION...BUT THE SHEAR VALUES WERE WEAK ON THE CRP AND
LCH SOUNDINGS.  THUS...ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND CANNOT RULE OUT
FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON.  WILL ADJUST THIS IN THE FORECAST.  IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA WILL UP THE POPS FOR TONIGHT.  BECAUSE OF THE RAINFALL
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE AT
LEAST A CATEGORY LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL TWEAK THESE
DOWNWARD...ALSO.

PL-40
45
99

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT FRI JUL 9 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-101200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
700 AM CDT FRI JUL 9 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST SO THE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 9 2004

GMZ330-350-370-TXZ210>212-226-227-235>237-091630-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-COLORADO-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-
WALLER-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 9 2004

...NOW...
THROUGH 1130 AM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE COAST
ARE SHOWING WEAK ROTATION. REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS IN WHARTON
COUNTY...REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT IN THE LAST HOUR OF FUNNELS OFF
OF HIGHWAY 71 WEST OF NADA. BE AWARE THAT WEAK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING FROM THESE STORMS AS THEY TRAVEL NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA AT 10 TO 15 MPH. OTHER THREATS INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.