Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

000 
WGUS74 KHGX 231146
FFSHOU
TXC239-231315-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
645 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR JACKSON COUNTY HAS EXPIRED.  WHILE RAIN 
HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING... SOME RESIDUAL FLOODING OF ROADS IN 
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS MORNING. 
DRIVE WITH CAUTION AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH ON 
ROADWAYS.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL 
POLICE...OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT 
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2909 9647 2877 9635 2874 9665 2915 9679

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO POPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

.DISCUSSION..
MESOSCALE VORT ASSOCIATED WITH MCS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT SUNRISE...THEN SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS. AS TEMPS HEAT INTO THE 80S...ADDITIONAL TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. VERY UNCERTAIN ON COVERAGE
TODAY...SO WILL KEEP THE ONGOING BROADBRUSH OF 70 POPS.

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ETA/GFS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING SE TX
LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. BOTH MODELS (ESPECIALLY GFS) SHOW VERY
STRONG LIFT OVER THE CWA FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING
THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO TONIGHTS EVENT...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
PER HPC QPFERD PRODUCT...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
COASTAL COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ANOTHER 2
TO 3 WOULD BE ENOUGH TO TIP THE SCALES TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
EVENT. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO 80 PCT TONIGHT/THU FOR THESE AREAS.

WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF
THE AREA...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE WATCH FOR THE FAR INLAND
COUNTIES. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 1/2 INCH RAIN THE LAST 24
HOURS. WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE...FEEL THAT
THEY WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAIN A LOT BETTER THAN POINTS
FURTHER SOUTH.

ONCE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (PROGGED FOR EARLY THU) EXITS THE AREA...WE
SHOULD SEE A REAL BREAK IN THE STORMS THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND WEAK CAPPING...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BE ENOUGH TO FIRE NUMEROUS TSRAS OVER THE AREA FRI/SAT DURING THE
DAY. WILL STICK WITH 50 POPS DURING THE DAY...AND 30 POPS AT NIGHT
THIS PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF RUN AGAIN SHOWS 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA SUN/MON...WHILE GFS KEEPS US QUITE WET. WILL STICK WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO.

35/30
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FFA SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF SE TX UNTIL 11Z THURSDAY.
SCEC 00 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 85 72 88 72 88 / 70 60 60 30 50
HOUSTON(IAH)          85 73 85 73 87 / 70 80 80 40 50
GALVESTON (GLS)       85 76 85 77 86 / 70 80 80 40 50
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-231200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

...HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER THE INLAND
COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RAPIDLY RISING WATER MAY ENGULF YOUR VEHICLE AND ITS
OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP THEM AWAY.

A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WHICH COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY OR TONIGHT.