Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
232 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 WHERE IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN BE FOUND. SOME CELL
TRAINING MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS AND
WE COULD GET SOME HAIL BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING. ALL EYES THEN BEGIN TO TURN TO THE GULF WHERE IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE THEIR ADVERTISEMENT OF INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS MOISTURE FROM THE
DISTURBANCE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST
AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OFF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN OUR AREA
AND THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA. A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL FLOW INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES WHERE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM GENERALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH. EXACT LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE TEXAS CLOSED LOW WILL BE OUR MAIN PLAYER IN
DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT SOME OF OUR AREA GETS HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE CIRCULATION MIGHT END UP TO OUR WEST
WHICH WOULD BRING THE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WILL CALL FOR
40% POPS ON MONDAY AND RAISE THEM TO 60% ON TUESDAY DURING THE
SUGGESTED TIME OF BEST GULF INFLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MID/
UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND
GIVES US SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK ALREADY TALKS ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FOR NOW...WILL
NOT MENTION THIS IN THE ZONES. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR
A GRADUAL DRYING OUT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BEGINS TO REPLACE THIS WEEKS MESS.
41/38
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 91 74 89 75 / 20 30 30 50 30
HOUSTON (IAH)         75 90 75 88 75 / 20 40 30 60 30
GALVESTON (GLS)       79 87 79 86 79 / 20 40 30 60 30
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-141200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A LARGE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT
NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IS BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF DISTURBANCE WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE POSSIBLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST BY
LATE MONDAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH MERGING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME CONCERNING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
MID-WEEK DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
PRIOR TO THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
602 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

GMZ335-TXZ200-213-227-132345-
FORT BEND-GALVESTON BAY-HARRIS-LIBERTY-
602 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY...

A CLUSTER OF STORMS MERGED OVER THE AREA ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59
CORRIDOR FROM NEAR BELTWAY ON THE NORTH SIDE TO NEAR THE DOWNTOWN
HOUSTON AREA. GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. THE COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS CLUSTER WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND MAY REACH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
GALVESTON BAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MARINERS IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF GALVESTON BAY SHOULD BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR ABRUPT CHANGES IN THE WINDS.