Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
312 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT WHERE LAPS DATA
SHOW BEST INSTABILITY. DECENT SHEAR IN THAT AREA AS WELL...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT A SVR TSRA OR TWO THERE. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WAVE SFC AND
ALOFT TO MOVE THRU. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AFTER HEATING ENDS AND WAVE MOVES THRU.

IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY...BUT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW CHC POP OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT ONLY SILENT 20 NRN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS/NW PIEDMONT WHERE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS.

DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEXT WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. HAVE HELD OFF ON LIKELY POP THU NITE FOR NOW...BUT DID SPREAD
LIKELY POP ACROSS THE CWFA FRIDAY AS WAVE MOVES THRU. SOME MDL
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND HIGHEST POP...GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. THEREFORE WANTED TO RAMP UP POP...BUT HOLD
HIGHEST POP TO ONE PERIOD FOR NOW. COULD ALSO BE SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS FRIDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR SOME CONSENSUS
BEFORE JUMPING ON THAT BANDWAGON.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY...BUT 00Z MDL CONSENSUS WAS TO HOLD ONTO
CHC POP. 12Z RUNS A LITTLE DRIER. TO AVOID FLIP-FLOP KEPT CHC POP IN
FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST.

MDL TEMPS CLOSE AND GENERALLY EXCEPTED...XCPT FOR FRIDAY. WENT
TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE HIGH POP EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)
LATEST GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE KEEP STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
GA/SC...JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THRU LATE TUESDAY. IN THIS
SCENARIO...WE WOULD REMAIN IN THE GRADIENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE WEAK IMPULSES/WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
WAVES. AS A RESULT...THE MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ON WEDNESDAY...A BIT TIGHTER PRECIP GRADIENT IS
SHOWN AS THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF
THE EAST COAST. THINK IT BEST TO INCLUDE A POP IN THE LOW PART OF
THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. TEMPS WILL BE KEPT
CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE MOS.

&&

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ALL SITES WILL BE HANDLED WITH GENERAL
VCTS. RADARS SHOWING CONVECTIVE LINE STRENGTHENING TO OUR N NEAR THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING IN VICINITY
OF CLOUDY/CLEAR BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/WRN PIEDMONT.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 22Z...AND TAFS WILL
BE AMENDED IN ADVANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AVL...ANY MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS
AND CEILINGS RISE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS EVENING...HAVE KEPT
VFR LOW CLOUD CEILING ACROSS REGION AS FRONT MOVES IN...BUT HAVE NOT
MENTIONED THUNDER YET...AS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP WIND STIRRED UP OVERNIGHT
SO THINK MOST SITES WILL NOT EXPERIENCE FOG OUTSIDE MOUNTAINS...BUT
MVFR CLOUD CEILING SHOULD RETURN. IF WIND DOES NOT STAY UP AS
EXPECTED...VISIBILITY WILL FALL INTO MVFR RANGE THOUGH. THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST FEW MORNINGS IN SPITE OF BOUNDARY
IN AREA...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS COULD HANG ON LONGER THAN SUGGESTED BY
GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  69  86  69  82 /  60  30  40  60
AND  69  87  70  83 /  60  30  40  60
CLT  68  87  70  84 /  60  30  30  60
HKY  66  86  68  82 /  60  20  30  60
AVL  64  82  65  78 /  60  30  50  60
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

RWH/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
558 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-240951-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
558 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE OR PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
312 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

NCZ036-037-057-232000-
DAVIE-IREDELL-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOCKSVILLE...SALISBURY...STATESVILLE
312 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 3 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE IREDELL AND ROWAN COUNTY LINE EAST OF
MOORESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THROUGH 4 PM...THIS
STORM WILL MAINLY AFFECT LOCATIONS IN WESTERN ROWAN COUNTY...
INCLUDING CHINA GROVE...LANDIS...MOUNT ULLA...AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH. THE STORM COULD INTENSIFY TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF
SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS
LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

NCZ070>072-082-232030-
CABARRUS-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-UNION NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...GASTONIA...MONROE
344 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...

AT 340 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER GASTON COUNTY...FROM DALLAS TO
MOUNT HOLLY...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MPH. THROUGH 430
PM...THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
GASTON COUNTY...AND WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF MECKLENBURG COUNTY...
LIKELY REACHING THE CENTER OF CHARLOTTE SHORTLY AFTER 4 PM. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH COULD
EXCEED 50 MPH IN SOME AREAS. THE STORM COULD INTENSIFY TO PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOORESVILLE             35.58N 80.81W
06/23/2004                   IREDELL            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ON SHEERERS
            ROAD.

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOORESVILLE             35.58N 80.81W
06/23/2004                   IREDELL            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ON SOUTH BROAD
            AND SOUTH ACADEMY STREETS.

&&

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

NCZ068>071-SCZ009-232200-
CLEVELAND-GASTON-LINCOLN NC-MECKLENBURG-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...GASTONIA...LINCOLNTON...
ROCK HILL...SHELBY
500 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

...ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT...

AT 450 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM AROUND STANLEY IN GASTON COUNTY...TO THE
KINGS MOUNTAIN AREA...MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 MPH. THROUGH 6 PM...
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST TO AFFECT GASTONIA AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 50 MPH...AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...
THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AMOUNT OF DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
INTENSIFY TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...FLOODING OF URBAN AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
556 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

NCZ071-072-082-232300-
CABARRUS-MECKLENBURG-UNION NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE
556 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE EASTERN
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA THROUGH 7 PM...

AT 556 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEWELL TO MATTHEWS TO
WEDDINGTON...JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS OF
FUNNEL CLOUDS OR CLOUD ROTATION HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STORMS. ANY OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND VERY FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM NEW SALEM TO
MONROE AT 615 PM...AND THEN REACH MARSHVILLE BY 630 PM. IN ADDITION
TO STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. URBAN
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

GAZ026-028-029-240000-
ELBERT-FRANKLIN GA-HART-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELBERTON...HARTWELL
654 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH 8 PM...

AT 654 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING ATHENS GEORGIA FROM THE
WEST AT 45 MPH. THIS LINE MAY AFFECT THE AREA FROM CARNESVILLE TO
BOWMAN TO ELBERTON BETWEEN 715 PM AND 8 PM. WIND GUSTS OF 50
MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE LIKELY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CASE A WARNING BECOMES NECESSARY.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES.

HG