Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

.SHORT TERM...

APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING...MOVING OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF
THE VA/NC COAST OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...SCT SH/TS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ASHING OUT
AFTER SUNSET. WILL CARRY CHC POPS...HIGHER OVER THE MTNS...THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET TO LATE EVENING...WILL USE CHC POPS OVER THE
NRN TIER TO COVER THE SRN REGION OF THE PASSING MCS. WILL KEEP TEMPS
MILD AND AROUND THE MOS CONSENSUS.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT AND WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND. WEDGE FRONT SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING MAX HEATING TOMORROW AND WILL EXPECT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TO RESULT. CAPES SHOULD POOL TO THE
2000-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH FOR STRONG WINDS...WARM TEMPS ALOFT WOULD LIMIT HAIL
PRODUCTION. DY2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HIGHLIGHTS THE CHC FOR SVR OVER THE
WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA.

WEDGE WILL BE AT IT/S PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. UPSLOPE FLOW AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY SHOULD PRODUCE
POCKETS OF SH AND CHC TS...POSSIBLY WITH PERSISTENT DZ. WILL
FORECAST A SOLID CHC OF PRECIP ATTM FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...POPS
WILL LIKELY NEED INCREASING IF PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. MOS
AGREEMENT FOR TEMPS IS FAIR AND WILL GENERAL ACCEPT THE CONSENSUS.

MON...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SE US. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS
EAST AND FA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. LITTLE WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
SH/TS TO DEVELOP AND WILL FORECAST CHC TO LIKELY COVERAGE. GFS WINDS
BECOME INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE MID DAY MON AS GULF BORN SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS GATHER WITH
THIS FEATURE AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ROUGHLY AGREE ON IT/S
EXISTENCE...BUT DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND TIMING...WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH.

.LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO WEAK ERN
TROUGHING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE TROUGH AXIS OF AN
ACTIVE NRN CONUS WAVE CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS BY WED. MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH LATE TUE...UNTIL FROPA EARLY WED USHERS
IN DRIER AIR AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. RIDGING
WITH DRIER PROFILES WILL THEN PERSIST UNTIL FRI AS A WEAK SW RETURN
FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE BACK TO THE BASE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  70  89  68  77 /  20  40  40  50
AND  71  91  70  80 /  20  40  50  50
CLT  70  87  66  79 /  30  40  30  30
HKY  69  84  65  74 /  30  30  30  30
AVL  63  83  66  74 /  30  40  30  50
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

NED/HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-120958-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
559 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ASSIST IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCTION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...COULD BE QUITE STRONG.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE IN THE
REGION...HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE TO
THEIR WARMEST LEVELS SO FAR THIS YEAR AND WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

BURRUS