Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

.SHORT TERM...
A SMATTERING OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CVRG TO LEAD OFF THIS
PACKAGE...WITH THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...DEEP ESELY
FLOW AND SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT ALONG FRONT SIDE OF NEARLY STATIONARY
WEAK VORT JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS
AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WILL CONFINE POPS BACK INTO THE SW ZONES
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LINGERS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LIFT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT WHICH MOVES LITTLE THROUGH 12Z.

IT STILL REMAINS PRETTY MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ON WEDNESDAY BUT
THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY VARIABLE AND NEBULOUS. ETA
MODEL RESPONSE SEEMS TO WANT TO FOCUS ON WEAK VORT HEADING TOWARD
THE MIDLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL ESSENTIALLY JUST PLAY UP CHC
POPS EVERYWHERE...BUT CUTTING THINGS OFF IN THE EVENING WITH FLOW
VEERING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WE ARE FINALLY INTO A MEAN RH MINIMA AS
S/WV RIDGING MOVES TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR JUST SOME TOKEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS.
WILL GRADIENT FRIDAY POPS HIGHER NORTH AND LESS TO THE SOUTH WITH
BETTER RH AND APPROACHING FRONT OFF TO OUR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS SCHEDULED TO TEASE THE NE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT
ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL EROSION OF UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THEN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAIRLY VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT SLATED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING...WITH THE FASTEST GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
MON NIGHT OR TUE...WITH THE ECM DELAYED UNTIL LATER TUE IN LINE WITH
LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. WILL BLEND TOWARD THE DELAYED SOLUTION FOR THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ALONG FRONTAL ON TUE. OTHERWISE...MOISTURE IN
THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOCUSED ON
TRIGGERING ALONG THE BACK DOOR FRONT AND HIGH TERRAIN FORCING
THROUGH MON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  67  83  66  85 /  40  50  40  30
AND  67  84  67  86 /  40  50  40  30
CLT  68  84  67  86 /  30  50  40  30
HKY  66  83  65  85 /  30  50  30  30
AVL  62  79  62  82 /  50  50  30  30
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

CSH/HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-090945-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
542 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE SEE
CAESPSGSP FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. IN
ADDITION...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR EACH
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ON MOST DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT TUE JUN 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW GASTONIA           35.23N 81.20W
06/08/2004                   GASTON             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY 911 REPORTS A FEW TREES BLOWN DOWN ON LOU DRIVE
            SOUTHWEST OF GASTONIA.

&&

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ053-059-062>067-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-
090300-
ABBEVILLE SC-ANDERSON SC-BUNCOMBE NC-CHEROKEE SC-ELBERT GA-
FRANKLIN GA-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-
GREATER PICKENS SC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-
HART GA-HENDERSON NC-LAURENS SC-MACON NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-
311 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

...LINGERING HEAVY RAIN THREAT...

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT GRADUALLY NORTH AND WEST TOWARD THE I-85 CORRIDOR...
AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY...IF NOT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AN
INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...BUT AS
WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN COMBINATION WITH
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS...COULD CAUSE ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/GSP