Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW OVER FAR E KY MOVG INTO WV-VA AND TRACKING SLOWLY NE. WEAK
SFC FRONT LIES ACROSS PIEDMONT ALONG S BORDER CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY E. PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING WITH EARLIER
CONVECTION AND CHANCE OF SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS CONT INTO THIS EVE WITH
STROGER STORMS E OF AREA. UPPER TROF MOVES E TONIGHT AND LOW LEVELS
DRY OUT FOR SAT. ON SUN HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SE AND BRUSH N CWA. MOISTURE IS A BIT SPARSE SUN THOUGH AND ETA
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOSPHERE TO BE CAPPED BY WARM AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS...COULD STILL SEE ISOLD AFTN-EVE CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE POINT TOWARD CHANCE
SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR MON AND HAVE RAISED POPS OVER MTNS SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...
RIDGE WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PER NCEP/S MANUAL PROGS AND THE 00 UTC GFS...SFC FRONT WL BE
STATIONARY SOMEWHERE ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER TUE THROUGH
THU...WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT BY LATE THU INTO FRI. ALOFT...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WL BECOME ORPHANED SOMEWHERE OVER THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC STATES TUE AS HGHTS RISE QUICKLY TO ITS N. A PERSISTENT
AXIS OF HIGH LAYER RH VALUES AND RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL EXIST S OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
BOTH DAYS. APPEARS THAT WE MAY DRY OUT A LITTLE THU. HOWEVER...PER
HPC/S PCPN NUMBERS AND TO AGREE WITH MOST OF THE NEIGHBORS...WL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE ZONES. BY FRI SW FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH A
RESULTANT INCREASE IN GFS RH VALUES. THEREFORE...WL ONCE AGAIN CARRY
AN AFTN POP NEXT FRI. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  61  84  61  84 /  20  10  10  20
AND  61  85  61  86 /  20  10  10  20
CLT  60  84  61  84 /  30  10  10  20
HKY  59  81  58  83 /  30  10  10  20
AVL  55  78  54  79 /  30  10  10  20
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

RB/BPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-051200-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
607 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR A PORTION OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. PLEASE SEE CAEFFAGSP FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AT THAT TIME. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT AND SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE
CAESPSGSP FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1225 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-050000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1225 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE... A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST... INTO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA BY THIS EVENING.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER... ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL REACH SEVERE LIMITS...
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL... ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM CHARLOTTE TO YORK... UNION... LAURENS... ABBEVILLE AND
ELBERTON.

CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW... ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS... THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON... ALONG
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THEREFORE... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CAROLINAS.

IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS... ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT... LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TOO LITTLE
HEATING FOR THERE TO BE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... THERE WILL STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

MCAVOY