Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG OVER SE US NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER...BACKDOOR FRONT EGDING DOWN INTO CWA FROM THE NE...POSSIBLY
INITIATING CONVECTION. GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH QPF WHILE ETA AND
GFS DEVELOP CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 THIS AFTN. RUC IS NOT AS
HIGH...WITH CLT AND HKY CAPE COMING IN AT ABOUT 2300. LAPS SOUNDINGS
SHOW BULLSEYE OVER GSP DUE TO HIGHER DPS. IN ANY CASE THERE IS A
CHANCE OF LATE DAY TSTMS...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
THAT IS CURRENTLY DIPPING S OF VA-NC BORDER. RUC ALSO BRINGS WEAK
PVA INTO CWA FROM THE SW THIS EVE...SO WITH SFC HEATING AND DP VALS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 60S...SCATTERED TSTMS LOOK REASONABLE.
PATTERN DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THROUGH TUE AND ALTHOUGH UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS OVER REGION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE DAY TSTMS
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR. TEMPS WILL COOL SLOWLY NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THKNS IS FCST TO DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
WED AS L/W TROUGH SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES. LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRI AM. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING THE LOWER APPALACHIANS BY SAT. IN THE
MEANTIME...SOUTH FLOW IN BETWEEN THE FRONT AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL
MAINTAIN A WARM AND MOIST FLOW OVER THE SE US. GFS LIS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION...WITH QUESTIONABLE FEATURES
ALOFT I CONTINUED TO SHOW FAVOR TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR POPS/WX.
WILL INTRODUCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SAT A FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLED DAYTIME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...IN LINE WITH HPC/MEX GUIDANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  63  87  62  85 /  30  10  10  10
AND  61  89  61  85 /  20  10  10  10
CLT  62  87  62  86 /  30  10  10  10
HKY  63  86  61  85 /  30  20  10  10
AVL  56  83  55  81 /  30  30  10  20
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

RB/NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
552 AM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-081200-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
552 AM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED AT 358 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA
LATE TODAY.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004

GAZ010-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>010-012>014-090200-
ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-CABARRUS NC-
CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-
GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-
GREATER PICKENS SC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-
IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-MCDOWELL NC-
MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-
UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
252 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INTERACT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.

THE MOST LIKELY AND EARLIEST LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STALLED FRONT. THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER DROPS OFF RAPIDLY TO THE
SOUTH...ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

ONE OTHER CONCERN REGARDING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING...MEANING THEY COULD PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT ANY ONE LOCATION. IF CAUGHT IN THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY...KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER LEVELS COULD RISE RAPIDLY IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
517 PM EDT SAT MAY 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E WAYNESVILLE         35.48N 82.96W
05/08/2004  60 MPH           HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            EDGE OF WAYNESVILLE TOWARD HOSPITAL

0435 PM     HAIL             CLYDE                   35.53N 82.91W
05/08/2004  0.88 INCH        HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            FOLLOWED BY PENNY HAIL 10 MINUTES LATER

&&

JONES