Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT RANGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY MONDAY. ALL SIGNS POINT TO LINEAR TYPE MCS MARCHING
EASTWARD ACROSS TN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MCS WILL IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD STRETCH SOMEWHERE ACROSS ERN TN...BEARING DOWN ON THE
NC MTNS...AT SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT UPPER FORCING
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AS THE MCS MOVES INTO THE WRN
CAROLINAS IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. WHAT IS PROBABLE IS THAT MCS
WILL STILL HAVE ENUF LEFT TO BRING SOME SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS...INTO THE NC MTNS IN THE MORNING...BEFORE IT RUNS
OUT OF GAS CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THAT REASON...WILL GO WITH
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POP IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY MONDAY MORNING.
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND RACE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE DAY...THEN WESTERLY 850MB FLOW WILL HINDER CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON. IT COULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POP IN THE EVENT THAT SOMETHING CAN REGENERATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OR ALONG A LEE TROF. WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE ACROSS NRN
TIER FOR HIGH TEMP UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET...AND EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE SAME
WAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY TO OUR N WHILE THE
GFS SUFFERS FROM GRID SCALE FEEDBACK ACROSS THE SE. ETA SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LEVEL DRYING WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...WHICH
COMBINED WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SERIOUSLY CUT DOWN ON
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. HAVE CUT BACK ON POP WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN
THE ZFP.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD COME ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND TROF ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER JET STREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCE POP. TEMPS IN ALL OTHER PERIODS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE AND ARE ACCEPTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MID RANGE MODELS DEPICT POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE IN STORE BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY. GFS HAS IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING DEEP INTO
WESTERN CANADA DURING THE PERIOD FORCING A POLAR TROF SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT AN ACTIVE MOIST
PATTERN WILL MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON A COUPLE
MODEL RUNS...BUT WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...KEPT POPS WITHIN CLIMO AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
SEASONAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE AND
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  69  83  64  84 /  30  50  10  10
AND  69  84  63  83 /  40  50  20  20
CLT  69  84  63  83 /  30  50  10  10
HKY  67  82  61  83 /  30  50  10  10
AVL  65  78  57  81 /  40  70  10  20
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

PM/SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-310920-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
521 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GREATEST IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TODAY AND THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. ANY REMNANTS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE APPALACHIANS AROUND DAYBREAK ON MEMORIAL DAY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE DAY MONDAY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...COULD BE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY TODAY...BUT MAY BE REQUIRED ON
MEMORIAL DAY.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
120 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-310010-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
120 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LEFT QUITE MUGGY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SUNSHINE BROKE OUT.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
WERE RISING QUICKLY...AND THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL INCREASE IN
SURFACE MOISTURE.  THE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE WAS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85.  A FEW OF THE STORMS WHICH DEVELOP COULD
QUICKLY GROW INTO SEVERE STORMS.

ALSO...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.  A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS COULD MAKE ENOUGH EASTWARD PROGRESS TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT.

JONES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
428 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

NCZ033-048>050-302054-
AVERY NC-MADISON NC-MITCHELL NC-YANCEY NC-
428 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...POSSIBLY CONTAINING A TORNADO...WAS MOVING
THROUGH GREENE COUNTY TENNESSEE...HEADED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.  THE STORM WAS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY...AND IT
IS QUITE POSSIBLE EITHER A TORNADO WARNING OR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY SOON FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES.  THE STORM WAS ALSO CAUSING LOTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND THE STORM APPEARED TO BE SPLITTING INTO TWO STORMS.
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.  UPDATE...A FUNNEL CLOUD
WAS JUST REPORTED BY A STORM SPOTTER IN GREENE COUNTY.

JONES