Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. ETA
DOESN/T BRING THE SFC FRONT THROUGH THE ERN ZONES UNTIL A LITTLE
AFTER 06 UTC. SO WHILE SEVERE MCS WL PROBABLY MOVE E OF THE CWFA
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WOULD EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. HAVE
REFLECTED THIS WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE ERN ZONES THROUGH 12 AM.

ON MON A STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPREADING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
UPPER MID-WEST SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH ETA AND GFS HAVE
STRONG PVA WITH THIS FEATURE. H8 TO H7 LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP.
LLVL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE STEEPER LATE IN THE DAY OVER
THE UPSTATE...BUT WL CONFINE POPS TO THE NC ZONES TO BETTER MATCH THE
NEIGHBORS AND BECAUSE THE PVA IS BETTER FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THERE
COULD BE A LOW TOPPED BUT ORGANIZED MCS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND IT
IS SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NGHT AND TUE. WITH LOW DWPTS AND LGT
WINDS...EXPECT THAT MANY HIGH ELEVATION AND SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING LATE. AT THE VERY LEAST THERE WILL BE A
HEAVY FROST. USING THE 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE RULE...HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL THE NC MTNS EXCEPT HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL KEEP ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS ABOVE
FREEZING.

SHOULD SEE SOME WIDE DIURNAL RANGES ON TUE AND WED. THE GFS DROPS A
CONNECTIVELY INDUCED VORT ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES LATE WED AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. FEEL THE VORT
IS OVERDONE AND DOUBT WE WL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MUCH
LESS ANY PCPN.

.LONG TERM...
STRONG RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CONUS DAYS 4
THROUGH 7. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE RIDGE IS STRONG ENUF AND FAR
ENUF E TO KEEP BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS FROM DROPPING INTO THE CWA JUST
ABOUT ANY TIME BETWEEN THU AND SUN. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FAVOR THE
STRONGER MORE ELY POSITION TO THE RIDGE. NCEP NOTED IN THE CHAT
ROOM THAT THEY LIKED THE OVERALL PATTERN OF THE GFS...BUT THEY
THOUGHT THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS WERE OVERDONE AS WELL. THE GFS DOES
INCREASE BNDRY LAYER DWPTS...AND THERE WL BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
THE LEE WITH THIS PATTER NO MATTER WHAT. HOWEVER...WL LEAVE THE
EXTENDED DRY.

H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE QUITE A BIT FROM THU ONWARD. ECMWF
HAS H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +18 BEGINNING THU LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS WAITS A DAY...BUT STARTING FRI IT IS EVEN A LITTLE
WARMER. WITH PERIODS OF WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE US PUSHING 90 BY NEXT WEEKEND. IF THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850
TO 500 MB RIDGE VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES MIGHT BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN DOWN HERE ON ACCOUNT OF
DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  51  70  44  70 /  50  20   0   0
AND  52  71  43  71 /  50  20   0   0
CLT  55  67  41  70 /  70  30   0   0
HKY  51  65  40  69 /  60  40  10   0
AVL  49  60  36  65 /  40  40   0   0
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZE WATCH MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL NC MOUNTAINS ZONES EXCEPT
HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA.
SC...NONE.
&&

MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-021200-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
600 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUANCE
OF CAESPSGSP FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE 444 AM FREEZE
OUTLOOK ISSUANCE OF CAESPSGSP FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

RWH

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-022100-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1045 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.  IN FACT...FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON THE AIR WILL LIKELY BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  THESE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS REPEAT OVER THE
SAME AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND...WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY IN PIEDMONT AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TOCCOA
GEORGIA TO GAFFNEY SOUTH CAROLINA...TO THE CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
AREA.  BY THAT TIME...SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD COME
TOGETHER TO ALLOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR A
FEW HOURS.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE LATER TODAY.

JONES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

NCZ069>072-082-SCZ009-014-022200-
CABARRUS NC-CHESTER SC-GASTON NC-LINCOLN NC-MECKLENBURG NC-UNION NC-
YORK SC-
306 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

...THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METROPOLITAN AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY. WARM...MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METROPOLITAN
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WIND. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

BY EARLY EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINSH FROM THE EAST.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLOVER                  35.11N 81.23W
05/02/2004                   YORK               SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            911 REPORTED SOME DEBRIS BLOWN INTO ROAD INCLUDING
            BRUSH...LIMBS...ALSO 1 TREE BLOWN ACROSS ROAD WESTERN
            PART OF COUNTY.

&&

JONES