Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 21, 2004Yancey County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 21, 2004, 5:47 PM EDT for Yancey County, North Carolina. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 21, 2004, 5:47 PM EDT (21:47 UTC)
Expired
May 21, 2004, 6:30 PM EDT
In force
43 min
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 211 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2004-05-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 474 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2004-05-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -9 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
474 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1300 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
4 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-9 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

330 
WUUS52 KGSP 212147
SVRGSP
NCC199-212230-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN YANCEY COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BURNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 3 MILES
  SOUTH OF CELO...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUSICK AROUND 550 PM EDT.
  MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK AROUND 610 PM EDT.

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3591 8216 3582 8215 3576 8217 3569 8225
          3575 8232 3584 8236

$$

HG/JRL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 21, 2:57 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 21, 2:57 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION SLOWER TO BEGIN TODAY AND LESS COVERAGE THAN THE PAST TWO
DAYS. MSAS/LAPS DATA SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CWFA...SO WILL LEAVE SCT EARLY EVE CONVECTION.

SOMEWHAT STAGNANT PATTERN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST
KEEPING DEEP SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AXIS OF HIGH PW REMAINS OVER
THE AREA AS DOES INSTABILITY. NO BIG CHANGES TO FCST. SCT AFT/EVE
CONVECTION WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON MONDAY. AXIS OF DRIER AIR WORKS
IN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PW. MUCH WARMER H7 TEMPS HELP LOWER
INSTABILITY SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL. OPS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
THE LOWEST POP I/VE SEEN THIS WEEK FOR MONDAY. WILL LOWER POP TO 20
FOR NOW. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR 90.

.LONG TERM...
TUE-FRI...OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BREAKING DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN A SOUTHWARD SAG OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH COULD MEANDER ITS
WAY INTO THE CWFA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...THE ECMWF AND GFS
BOTH SEND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...NCEP ENSEMBLE PROGS DEPICT A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS MEMBER SOLUTIONS. FOR
NOW...WILL INCREASE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY ABOUT 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE
BOARD. THE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT
WEEK...AS MUCH WILL DEPEND UPON THE FATE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SILENT 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  69  90  67  89 /  20  30  20  30
AND  68  90  66  89 /  20  30  20  30
CLT  68  90  67  89 /  20  30  20  30
HKY  67  89  66  88 /  20  30  20  30
AVL  62  84  62  84 /  20  40  20  30
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

RWH/JDL
Hazardous weather outlook, May 21, 4:52 AM EDT, 12 hours 55 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
452 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-220900-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
452 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

RB

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 21, 4:09 PM EDT, 1 hour 38 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

NCZ033-034-050-054-055-212104-
AVERY NC-BURKE NC-CALDWELL NC-MCDOWELL NC-MITCHELL NC-
409 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN AFFECTING EASTERN AVERY COUNTY SINCE
ABOUT 315 PM.  RADAR AS ESTIMATED RAINFALL OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN A
COUPLE OF AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY.  ALSO...IT IS LIKELY
THAT SOME HAIL WAS FALLING.  A RECENT CHECK WITH A SPOTTER AND THE
COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS CENTERS INDICATED NO UNUSUAL WEATHER...OTHER
THAN PLENTY OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL.

THIS STORM WAS EXPANDING...AND COULD BECOME SEVERE AT ANY TIME.  SOME
LOCAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE STORM COULD AFFECT SMALL PARTS OF
CALDWELL...BURKE...MITCHELL...AND MCDOWELL COUNTIES.

JONES
Special weather statement, May 21, 4:36 PM EDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

NCZ053-212130-
BUNCOMBE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ASHEVILLE
436 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CANDLER...

AT 430 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ABOUT THREE MILES NORTHWEST OF CANDLER IN WESTERN
BUNCOMBE COUNTY. THIS STORM IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...
BUT MAY CONTINUE TO REBUILD ON THE NORTH SIDE FOR THE NEXT HALF
HOUR. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PEAS IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO 45 MPH.

LAMB

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.