Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EDT WED MAY 19 2004

.SHORT TERM...
LAPS/MSAS DATA SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. EXPECT TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AS CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE MTNS MOVES EAST OFF
THE ESCARPMENT. WILL KEEP LIKELY EVENING POP CWFA WIDE. STILL
EXPECTING ISOLATED SVR...ESP NRN TIER WHERE SHEAR/ORGANIZATION WILL
BE BETTER.

MDLS HINTING AT MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MOVING SE TOWARD OUR NW
PIEDMONT. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW...BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES.

FOR THU MDLS KEEP AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH MAGNITUDE LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...ACROSS THE CWFA. UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LEE TROF WILL LEAD TO SCT AFT/EVE
CONVECTION.

CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FRI. HOWEVER
GFS AND ETA SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY AND THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE CWFA.
ETA HAS MUCH LOWER LAYER RH WITH LITTLE POP WHILE GFS HAS MORE WITH
CHC POP. WILL LEAVE CHC POP IN GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED
LEE TROF.

RIDGE MOVES E SAT WITH BOTH MDLS SHOWING A RETURN OF DEEP LAYER RH.
INSTABILITY AND LEE TROF CONTINUES AS DOES CHC POP.

WARMING TREND THRU THE PERIOD AS THICKNESSES RISE AND LESS LAYER RH
LEADS TO LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES CWFA-WIDE WITH APPROACH OF A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A WARMING TREND...WITH SOME MAXES
REACHING LOWER 90S IN THE GRIDS...AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
60S AT NIGHT FOR THE MOST PART. WEDNESDAY...SURFACE FRONT
RETREATS...ALLOWING CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO BE HELD TO JUST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN CWFA-WIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  64  86  65  88 /  30  30  30  30
AND  64  86  65  89 /  30  30  30  30
CLT  64  86  65  89 /  30  30  30  30
HKY  64  85  65  87 /  40  30  30  30
AVL  60  81  60  84 /  30  40  40  40
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

RWH/SAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EDT WED MAY 19 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-200958-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
607 AM EDT WED MAY 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW MOVING...AND A
FEW AREAS WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WHILE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /CAESPSGSP/
HAS NOT YET BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY...IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT AS WIDESPREAD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THEY WILL BE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONDUSIVE TO PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON EITHER DAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 19 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-192100-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 19 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WAS MORE UNSTABLE
THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  CLOUD COVER WAS NOT QUITE AS
THICK...AND SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF OR
LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINED THIS MORNING...AND AS AFTERNOON HEATING
ALLOWS THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME EVEN MORE UNSTABLE...NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE WESTERN PART OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.  SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...AS THE FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES WEAKER LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...SOME STORMS MAY CAUSE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
URBAN AREAS. LOCAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR AS A RESULT OF SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

JONES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
448 PM EDT WED MAY 19 2004

NCZ054-192117-
MCDOWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MARION
448 PM EDT WED MAY 19 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARION...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH...ACROSS I-40 AND THROUGH SOUTHERN
MCDOWELL COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CSH