Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
456 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
UPDAINT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH IN SWAIN...GRAHAM AND MACON
COUNTIES UNTI 02Z. CONVECTION RACING INTO KCHA AREA OF E TN EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SW NC WITHIN TWO TO THREE HOURS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
CONVECTIVE MASS AHEAD ON THE FRONTAL LOW CURRENTLY SWINGING NE
ACROSS EASTERN TN ATTM. ISO SH HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NC MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SH/TS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
WILL COVER WITH CHC POPS EAST OF I-85 THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LOW MOVING FURTHER NE...CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION TONIGHT. W
TO SW H85 WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT UPSLOPE PRECIP OVERNIGHT. EARLY PERIODS OF THE GFS
SHOWING THAT THE MODEL HAS INITIALIZED TOO WET. WILL FAVOR THE ETA
SOLUTION OF KEEPING THE PRECIP OVER THE MTNS AND ISO TO SCT
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE CLUSTER WILL
ADVERTISE CATE POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS. EAST OF MTNS...SCT SH AND ISO TS SHOULD
ADVANCE TOWARD THE EAST BY DAYBREAK.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST CHC POPS THROUGH
3Z SUN. WITH CAPES APPROACHING 2K J/KG AND HEALTHY WIND
FIELDS...SVR WX POTENTIAL WILL BE A CONCERN SAT AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TO MORE OF A CAD PATTERN FOR SUN
INTO MON. WILL ADVERTISE STABLE NE BL FLOW FROM SUN AM THROUGH MON
AND WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT THAT THE
PATTERN WILL YIELD LITTLE CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. HOWEVER...WITH
STALLING FRONT WILL GRID SOME SH/TS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY AS
WEAK SHORT WAVES RIDE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK
SRLY RETURN FLOW ALLOWS FAIRLY ABUNDANT SFC TO 850 MB MOISTURE TO
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS WESTWARD TO INCREASE
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE PERSISTS TO
REQUIRE CHANCE POPS WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
HAZE CONTINUES TO RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR RANGE AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS
AND THIS SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH EVENING AS MIXING
INCREASES. FAIRLY EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD ADVANCE SLOWLY TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS...BUT BEST AXIS OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF MOST
TERMINAL LOCATIONS UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT AVL THROUGH PERIOD...BUT NARROWING
THE CHANCES DOWN TO A SMALLER TEMPO WINDOW REMAINS ELUSIVE. MIXING
AND HIGHER CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS ABOVE THE LOW IFR RANGE OBSERVED
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ZONES NCZ051-058-062 UNTIL 10 PM
     EDT.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-211000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
559 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TODAY...MAINLY FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR NON-MOUNTAIN
AREAS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEE
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG...UNDER
THE PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST HEADER CAESPSGSP...FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED LATER TODAY IF THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE ENOUGH.

BURRUS