Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES AREA THROUGH TUE...WHILE TS ALEX
MOVES SLOWLY UP COAST. CONVECTION FIRING IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...PRIMARILY IN E WHERE MOISTURE GREATEST...AND ALONG BLUE RIDGE
WHRERE SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPNENT EXIST. EXPECT CIRCULATION AROUND ALEX
TO GRADUALLY BACK WINDS TO N AND DOWNSLOPE TONIGHT...SHUTTING OFF
CONVECTION ALL BUT FAR E. NW FLOW IN WAKE OF SYSTEM TUE TO KEEP POPS
LIMITED TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED AREAS...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED AND
SHALLOW...POPS WILL BE SMALL. FURTHER DRYING LATE TUE NIGHT SHOULD
END EVEN OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW WED...AND
MODELS HANDLE FEATURE QUITE DIFFERENTLY....WITH GFS SLOWER AND
ORIENTED MORE N/S. DELAYED PREFRONTAL POPS A COUPLE OF HOURS WED
AFTERNOON TOWARD HPC PREFFERED GFS SOLUTION AND BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING. GFS BACKS WIND TO SW AHEAD OF FRONT...UNLIKE ETA...BUT NOT
UNTIL WED AFTN...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN. WITH EITHER A W
OR N LOW ASSOICATED WITH FRONT...MTS WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR PRECIP.
BY THU FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEE OF MTS...AND WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST
POPS FAR S...NEAREST FRONT DURING HEAT OF DAY. DRYING BEHIND FRONT
THU NIGHT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THU AND THU NIGHT...AND EXPECT WIND UP
FROM N COMPONENT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
REMAINS THRU SUNDAY. DRY FCST THIS PERIOD AS PRECIP CHCS MINIMAL.
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER...ONLY REAL
CONCENTRATED AREAS AT TAF TIME WERE ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. CAN/T FIND
ANY SIG SFC CONVERGENCE TO GIVE ME CONFIDENCE TO PREDICT WHERE PCPN
MIGHT BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HRS...SO HAVE GONE
WITH VCTS AND CB WORDING IN TAFS WHILE INCLUDING NO TEMPO GROUPS. WL
UPDATE TAFS AS IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT PCPN WL ACTUALLY OCCUR AT A
SITE. IT WAS THIS OR GO WITH 4 HR TEMPO GROUPS EVERYWHERE. PREVIOUS
SHIFT BROUGHT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO ALL TAF SITES AGAIN TNGT. WITH
FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE DOWNSLOPE AS TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES UP
THE COAST...THERE WL BE MORE INHIBITION THAN THERE HAS BEEN FOR A
WHILE. HOWEVER...MAV MOS INSISTS ON BRINGING IN LOW CIGS...AND
W/VERY HIGH SFC DWPTS...WL PLAY ONE MORE NGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
VSBYS.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-030912-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
513 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TROPICAL STORM ALEX ROTATE INTO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS TRAVELING ALONG A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W CLAYTON             34.88N 83.51W
08/02/2004                   RABUN              GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 76 WEST OF CLAYTON. ONE TREE DOWN
            ON A VAN. NOT SURE OF INJURIES.

&&

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
425 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>003-022300-
AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-GRAHAM NC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-HABERSHAM GA-
HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-MITCHELL NC-
NORTHERN JACKSON NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-
RABUN GA-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-YANCEY NC-
425 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS WERE SCATTERED...AND
WERE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER WITH NORTH CAROLINA.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BLEW DOWN SOME TREES
IN RABUN COUNTY GEORGIA.

THE STORMS WERE MOVING VERY SLOWLY...AND WERE DUMPING HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER SMALL AREAS.  RADAR HAS ESTIMATED 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE ABOUT 3 PM IN A SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST MADISON COUNTY AND
NORTHWEST HAYWOOD COUNTY IN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THREATS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCAL FLOODING...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR FLASH
FLOODING WARNINGS.

JONES