Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TONIGHT)...
LIKE EVERYONE ELSE AROUND THESE PARTS...BEEN WATCHING MCS DIVING
DOWN ACROSS KY INTO TN THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH INTEREST. BASED ON
MOVEMENT OF EASTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION SEEN ON KMRX RADAR...AT LEAST
A CHANCE POP IS NEEDED FOR THE NC MTNS. LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION
WOULD BE IN GRAHAM/SWAIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT EASTERN EDGE WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES NE TN. GIVEN RESIDENT SFC BASED CAPE OF
NEARLY 2000 J/KG ON 02Z LAPS ANALYSIS...MY FIRST GUESS WOULD BE
YES...SO THE TIME TO START PREPARING FOR THIS CONVECTIVE LINE IS
NOW. WILL START TO RATCHET UP WITH SPS. FORWARD MOVEMENT IS 45 TO 50
KTS...SO VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 HRS FROM NOW. WILL GO WITH JUST CHANCE
POP NOW...BUT COULD BUMP MUCH HIGHER IN SHORT ORDER. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 256 PM.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CU POPULATION EAST OF THE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS TRIGGER TEMPS ARE
BEING REACHED...RADAR SHOWING A CLUSTER OF SH/TS BEGINNING OVER THE
I-40 CORRIDOR E OF THE MTNS ATTM. WILL EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO INCREASE AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC POPS WILL
GREATEST CHC GIVEN TO THE MTNS. WILL EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND WILL REDUCE POPS. AREAS ALONG THE
WESTERN UPSLOPE MAY BE THE EXCEPTION AND WILL CONTINUE SCHC MENTION
OVERNIGHT.

H5 LOW WILL SWING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY WED NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 18Z WED. EVIDENCE IS POINTING TO
SH/TS TO REMAIN AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FA. IN FACT...THE GFS DEPICTS AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS THE COMPLEX
ENCOUNTERS THE MTNS BETWEEN 15-18Z. ETA AND GFS SHOW THAT THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 0Z THU. WITH THE FRONT SCHEDULED TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB FREELY INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S EAST OF THE MTNS. DWPTS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH WILL YIELD CAPES 2-3K J/KG.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING OTHER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS BUILDING
INTO THE FAVORABLE RANGE FOR SEVERE STORMS 0-3 KM  100M2/S2, TT
50, SWEAT >300, AND K-INDEX >30. SPC HIGHLIGHTS REGION IN THE DY2
SLIGHT RISK. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION THREAT...GRADIENT WINDS
WILL BE QUITE BREEZY IN THE MTNS WED WITH MIXING HEIGHT POSSIBLY
REACHING AS HIGH AS H7.

AFTER FROPA...FA WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY NW FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. WILL FORECAST DRY WEATHER FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR MOS CONSENSUS.

NED

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACRS THE EASTERN U.S.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TIMING OF SOME INITIAL S/WV
ENERGY MOVING INTO BASE OF TROUGH LOOKS SLATED FOR SAT/SAT NITE.
ATTENDANT SFC FRONT AND DEEP RH MAX ROTATES ACRS 18Z SAT-06Z SUN
AS PER 12Z GFS. FOR NOW...WITH PROGGED WESTERLY LLVL FLOW...WILL
LIMIT JUST SLT CHC POPS TO THE NC MTNS. COULD BE LOOKING AT A
STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE UP
GOING TIMING OF CHC POPS ONE DAY BECAUSE OF THIS...WITH A NOW DRY
MONDAY PERIOD WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
CSH
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

MOORE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-140912-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
513 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY EVENING. SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
933 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

NCZ036-037-056-057-069-071-072-140230-
CABARRUS NC-CATAWBA NC-DAVIE NC-IREDELL NC-LINCOLN NC-MECKLENBURG NC-
ROWAN NC-
933 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...THROUGH
THE LATE PART OF THE EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. ONE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN PARTICULAR WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IREDELL COUNTY AND
INTO ROWAN COUNTY BY 10 PM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG...AND
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WHICH MIGHT KNOCK DOWN SOME
TREE LIMBS. VERY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED.

PEOPLE FROM STATESVILLE TO CHINA GROVE AND SALISBURY SHOULD BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR THESE STORMS...AND SEEK SHELTER AS THEY APPROACH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1049 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033>035-048>056-058-059-062>070-SCZ001>008-140500-
ALEXANDER NC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-
CHEROKEE SC-CLEVELAND NC-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-
GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-
HABERSHAM GA-HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-RUTHERFORD NC-
SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-SWAIN NC-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-YANCEY NC-
1049 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
STORMS WERE RACING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 50 MPH...AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS BY 2 AM.
THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BRING THEM INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS AS
FAR SOUTH AS A LINE FROM GAFFNEY TO GREENVILLE...PICKENS AND TOCCOA.

WIND GUSTS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS LINE
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THESE STORMS ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
THAN THE ONE FROM WHICH THEY HAVE ORIGINATED...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS
COULD ALSO OCCUR WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHER
TERRAIN.

IN ADDITION TO HIGH WINDS...BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ARE ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.