Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS SE USA THROUGH SUN...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ALONG EAST COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING E ACROSS AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG I-40
CORRIDOR. CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING IN NC MTS...AND WILL FAVOR THIS
AREA WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER POPS THIS EVENING...THOUGH STILL SMALL
CHANCE.

EVEN THOUGH SUNDAY FEATURES LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TRIGGER...GUIDANCE RUNNING 40 POPS MOST OF AREA. WILL TREND IN THAT
DIRECTION FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS...PARTICULARLY N TIER...
WHERE ANY WEAK IMPULSE WOULD TRACK.

ON MON UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUFFICIENTLY IN PLACE TO ALLOW IMPULSES TO
REACH AREA...AND AGAIN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS 40 POPS...AND THIS TIME
MODELS BRING AN IMPULSE SE TOWARD AREA. GFS STRONGER WITH THIS
IMPULSE... POSSIBLY SUPPORTING EVEN HIGHER POPS...BUT WILL STAY WITH
40 POP FOR NOW....CONTINUING THROUGH EVENING.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ARRIVES TUE...SUPPORTING CHANCE POPS...AGAIN HIGHEST
ALONG N TIER...WHICH REAMINS CLOSER TO TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
AND UNDER BEST MOISTURE.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL AND
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER INCREASE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HELD
UP BY MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS E OF REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO AFFECT THE CWA
AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY N AND E OF THE AREA. LIGHT W TO NW
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WITH LOWS NEAR
70. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR SCT AFTN-EVE
CONVECTION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSTMS WL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS. HAVE INCLUDE A 2 HR TEMPO GROUP AT THE AVL AIRPORT FROM 18 TO
20 UTC. ALL OTHER TAFS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS HAVE BEEN GIVEN A VCTS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CLT ONLY HAS A CB LISTED AS BEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND WEST OF THE AIRPORT. LOOKS LIKE
PATCHY MVFR FOG AGAIN TNGT. HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR FOG AT
ANDERSON...HKY AND AVL...THE USUAL SUSPECTS WHEN IT COMES TO
FOG...LGT WNDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS. NO RESTRICTIONS ANYWHERE
ELSE...THOUGH THAT COULD CHANGE IF ANY TAF SITES SEE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...BPM
AVIATION...BPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
544 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-110945-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
544 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL ALSO CREATE A THREAT OF
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND/OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LANE

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