Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR APPROACHING CONVECTION.

RUC AND ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAKLY CAPPED CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA ATTM. HOWEVER...CAPES APPROACHING 3K J/JG EXIST JUST OVER THE
STATE LINE INTO GA AND TN. CLUSTERS OF SH/TS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN
THE UNSTABLE AIR...MOVING SLOWLY EAST. MESOETA AND RUC SHOW THE
ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH QPF
STRUGGLING TO MOVE EAST OF THE MTNS. RIDGELINE ENHANCE CU EVIDENT ON
THE SATELLITE AND WOULD EXPECT ISO/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THE ADVECTING SH/TS AND LOCAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL FORECAST SCT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISO EAST.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK
PVA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
L90S OVER UPPER 60S DWPTS. MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES
CLIMBING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FA BY 21Z WED. SFC
TRIGGERS WILL BE LIMITED TO RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE AND LEE SIDE
TROF...HOWEVER...ATMOS WILL SHOULD NOT HAVE AS STRONG AS A CAP AS
TODAY. WILL FORECAST CHC COVERAGE WILL FAVOR GIVEN TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THU...I WILL FOLLOW MORE OF THE SLOWER FRONTAL MOTION OF THE ETA FOR
DETAILS. WITH THE TROF AXIS ROTATING OVERHEAD AND WEAK WESTERN
UPSLOPE I WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CHCS
SHOULD SHIFT EAST THU AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...WILL ADD DETAILS TO THE GRIDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRI. LIGHT RETURN FLOW SHOULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE NC MTNS TO INCREASE INSTABILITY BY
FRI PM...WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO W ATLANTIC...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVER REGION FOR SAT AND SUN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH...HOWEVER AND DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION EACH DAY...ESP OVER MTNS.
ANY SHORTWAVES THAT TRANSLATE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS BUT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE MTNS AND ISOLD ELSEWHERE INTO
THIS EVE. HAVE INCLUDED CB CLOUD TYPES IN TAFS THIS EVE TO INDICATE
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW BUILDUPS...BUT NO VCTS OR TEMPO
GROUPS DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT SO PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...ESP IN LOW LYING
AREAS NEAR WATER AND HAVE INCLUDED EARLY MORNING MVFR VISIBILITY AT
KAVL AND AT KAND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-071036-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
636 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY COULD EFFECT WESTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

NCZ053-065-062315-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE
615 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE ASHEVILLE AREA...

AT 605 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 4 MILES WEST OF THE ASHEVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT.
THROUGH 715 PM...THIS STORM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST...AFFECTING
LOCATIONS AROUND MILLS RIVER AND THE AIRPORT...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING
I-26 AND FLETCHER BY 7 PM.

GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS STORM COULD INTENSIFY TO PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE