Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FIRST PERIOD CONCERN CENTERS AROUND THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION. MCS
OVER WESTERN KY WILL CONTINUE TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AS IT REACHES THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED SH/TS ARE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTN PEAKS ATTM. WILL EXPECT COVERAGE OF THE LOCAL CONVECTION TO
SLOWLY INCREASE OVER FA BEFORE SUNLIGHT FADES. WILL FORECAST CHC
OVER THE MTNS AND ISO EAST...WILL END MENTION IN THE GRIDS BY 4Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MCS.

AMPLITUDE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN HIGH
TUE. MESOETA SHOWS H85 TEMPS BUILDING TO 21C BY TUE
AFTERNOON...WHILE KEEPING SKY RATHER CLEAN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DWPTS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CATE...WITH WIDESPREAD
VALUES OF 100F LASTING 2-3 HRS.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FA ON WED
AS H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. THE ATMOS SHOULD DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS
DECREASE ALOFT AND LLVL DWPTS POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC COVERAGE. THU...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL AGAIN USE CHC POPS TO REPRESENT.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
COLD FRONT FCST TO PUSH THROUGH CWA FROM THE NW ON THU...WHILE MAIN
ENERGY WITH UPPER TROF STAYS WELL N. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
FCST...WITH HIGHER POPS OVER MTNS THU INTO THU EVE. UPPER RIDGE AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REALLY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER REGION FRI AND TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY MTNS...THROUGH WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION TODAY WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS STRONG CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN-EVE. WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STILL EXPECT SCT TSTMS MTNS AND
ISOLD ELSEWHERE UNTIL COOLING THIS EVE. DEW POINTS REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH AND WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT EXPECT MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
618 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-061017-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
618 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EXTENDING
EAST INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID-MORNING.

SPOTTY MORNING SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.