Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
KGSP 88-D SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION SETTING UP ACROSS OUR WESTERN
CWFA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORT OVER THE REGION AND OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM RADARS ALSO INDICATE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE MAIN BAND ORGANIZING IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES. AIRMASS UNSTABLE NOW AHEAD OF THIS LINE. LAPS
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY WARM MID LAYERS BUT WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH HEATING
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO BREAK ANY CAP...AND THE SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION.
COULD SEE SOME WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY COLD POOLS...AND WE HAVE HEARD
OF TREES DOWN UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
THERE. WE WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WEST OF A LINE FROM SPARTANBURG TO GREENWOOD. HIGH CHANCE
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

AFTER 02Z...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS GREATLY BUT WE MAY HAVE HAD ENOUGH
HEATING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE COULD END
UP BEING A LITTLE GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE WEST DEPENDING ON
WHAT TRANSPIRES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AHEAD OF A MAJOR
VORTICITY CENTER WHICH APPEARS TO BE SENDING A SPRAWLING COLD POOL
OUR WAY PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. NEITHER THE RUC...ETA80...
ETA40 OR GFS PRODUCES MUCH PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION WITH THIS
FEATURE. SUCEEDING SHIFT MAY NEED TO UPDATE EARLY TO INCREASE IF IT
APPEARS CONVECTION WILL COVER A WIDER AREA. MODELS INSIST THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT AS THE TROF AXIS MAKES MORE ENROADS
INTO OUR CWFA...BUT DRIER SURFACE AIR MAY BE CONFINED ONLY TO THE
NORTHWEST ZONES.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CAP OFF THE NEW
WEEK...AND AFTER SEVERAL COOL DAYS RECENTLY...IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL. 80S MOUNTAINS TO
90S FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OVERNIGHT MINS
FALLING BACK ONLY INTO THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. SURFACE
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST...WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 100 FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY (A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA ACTUALLY REACH A FORECAST VALUE OF 105 MONDAY)
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LEE TROF
SHOULD SET UP BUT MOISTURE MAY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. ANY FRONTS REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF RAIN WEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN TO ENHANCE PROSPECTS OF MORE CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURE COOLDOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE 00Z GFS DEPICTS A SHEARING VORT AXIS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING JUST TO THE
NORTH...WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...NEW GUIDANCE RETURNS TO THE RECENT TREND OF BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BE A BIT
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL
LIMIT CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BY SUNDAY...SOME WEAKNESS
IS NOTED IN THE UPPER RIDGE...SO LOW CHANCE POP IN THE MEX GUIDANCE
IS ACCEPTED. ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPS...ALTHO HIGH
TEMP MIGHT NOT BE WARM ENOUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL HANDLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VC UNTIL TIMING CAN BE ASCERTAINED...AT WHICH
POINT TAFS WILL BE AMENDED TO SPECIFY TIME WINDOW...WHICH SHOULD BE
NO LONGER THAN TWO HOURS AT ANY SITE. CONVECTIVE LINE ORGANIZED
AHEAD OF VORT LOBE THAT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING. CEILING/VIS SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT IN TSRA. IN WAKE OF
CONVECTIVE LINE...ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
INTERESTING WRINKLE FOR THE EVENING HOURS IS PROGRESSION OF MCS SEEN
MARCHING ACROSS MS RIVER AT 18Z. AIR MASS OVER WEST SHOULD HAVE TIME
TO RECOVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE MCS TO MOVE RIGHT UP TO THE NC MTNS SOME TIME AFTER 00Z. THIS
FEATURE IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE TAFS...BUT COULD BE ADDRESSED IF
CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUPPORT BRINGING IT ACRS THE MTNS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP IN MANY
SPOTS...BUT THAT SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURRUS
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-051014-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
615 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
EXTENDING EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING

AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SPSGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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